A New Framework for Studies of Climate Change Projections and Risks Oriented Towards Carbon Neutrality

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  • (1. National Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; 2. College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)
ZHANG Jingyong, Research areas mainly include carbon neutrality and climate change, earth system simulations and climate prediction. E-mail: zjy@mail.iap.ac.cn

Online published: 2025-02-19

Supported by

Project supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606501); National large Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility” (Grant No. 2023-EL-ZD-00068).

Abstract

A new framework for studies of climate change projections and disaster risks oriented towards carbon neutrality was built up, based on a division method of positive emissions period-net zero period-net negative period. Focusing on main Belt and Road regions, future mean and extreme climate change projections and disaster risks oriented towards carbon neutrality were systematically addressed under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 sustainable development pathways. It is projected that over global carbon neutrality or net-zero periods, climate change will exhibit new characteristics and patterns, and disaster risks will undergo new changes over the main Belt and Road regions. The newly developed framework provides a new scheme for climate change projections and disaster risks assessment. It is proposed that the seventh assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the other future assessment report on climate change should include climate change projections and disaster risks assessment oriented towards carbon neutrality, which can provide new scientific knowledge for jointly dealing with climate change and achieving sustainable development. In addition, the role and application of Artificial Intelligence in future climate change projections and climate disasters assessment are discussed.

Cite this article

ZHANG Jingyong . A New Framework for Studies of Climate Change Projections and Risks Oriented Towards Carbon Neutrality[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.001

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