Advances in Compound Extreme Events in the Context of Climate Change
Received date: 2023-04-03
Revised date: 2023-06-17
Online published: 2023-08-28
Supported by
the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai “Evolution mechanism and prediction of compound extreme events in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration”(23ZR1456900);The Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Remote sensing detection and real-time diagnosis of surface anomalies”(42192584)
Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the safety of both natural and built environments. Compound extreme events are combinations of multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risks, and their impacts on human society and natural ecosystems are often more serious and destructive than those of a single extreme event. Understanding the changes in compound extreme events is important for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and disaster risk management. Here, the definitions and connotations of compound extreme events are briefly discussed, including preconditioned, multivariate, temporal, and spatial compounding events. Subsequently, the progress in compound extreme event research is discussed in terms of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, influencing factors, and future scenario projections. Given the problems in current research, we suggest that future studies should focus on studying compound extreme events regarding variable/index selection and threshold determination, dependence and interaction analysis among drivers and/or hazards, simulation performance evaluation and future projections, and their dynamic processes and disaster-causing mechanisms. Compound extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warming world, and many regions are projected to experience an increase in the probability of compound events with greater global warming. Therefore, we must improve our understanding of the causes and drivers of compound and cascade events.
Jun SHI , Linli CUI , Yudan GU , Ping TANG . Advances in Compound Extreme Events in the Context of Climate Change[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2023 , 38(8) : 771 -779 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.042
1 | IPCC. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2021. |
2 | HORTON D E, JOHNSON N C, SINGH D, et al. Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends[J]. Nature, 2015, 522(7 557): 465-469. |
3 | ZHANG Y, YANG P L, GAO Y, et al. Health and economic impacts of air pollution induced by weather extremes over the continental U.S[J]. Environment International, 2020, 143. DOI:10.1029/2020JD033210 . |
4 | LIANG X Z. Extreme rainfall slows the global economy[J]. Nature, 2022, 601(7 892): 193-194. |
5 | REICHSTEIN M, RIEDE F, FRANK D. More floods, fires and cyclones—plan for domino effects on sustainability goals[J]. Nature, 2021, 592(7 854): 347-349. |
6 | World Meterological Organization (WMO). Atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes (1970-2019)[R]. WMO-No. 1267, 2021. |
7 | AghaKOUCHAK A, CHENG L Y, MAZDIYASNI O, et al. Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: insights from the 2014 California drought[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014, 41(24): 8 847-8 852. |
8 | ZSCHEISCHLER J, WESTRA S, van den HURK B J J M, et al. Future climate risk from compound events[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8(6): 469-477. |
9 | ZSCHEISCHLER J, MARTIUS O, WESTRA S, et al. A typology of compound weather and climate events[J]. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2020, 1(7): 333-347. |
10 | RAYMOND C, SUAREZ-GUTIERREZ L, KORNHUBER K, et al. Increasing spatiotemporal proximity of heat and precipitation extremes in a warming world quantified by a large model ensemble[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2022, 17(3). DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5712 . |
11 | HAO Z C. Compound events and associated impacts in China[J]. iScience, 2022, 25(8). DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104689 . |
12 | SINGH J, ASHFAQ M, SKINNER C B, et al. Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12(2): 163-170. |
13 | FIELD C B. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption[M]. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. |
14 | YU Rong, ZHAI Panmao. Advances in scientific understanding on compound extreme events[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2021, 44(5):645-649. |
14 | 余荣, 翟盘茂. 关于复合型极端事件的新认识和启示[J]. 大气科学学报, 2021, 44(5):645-649. |
15 | ZSCHEISCHLER J, SILLMANN J, ALEXANDER L. Introduction to the special issue: compound weather and climate events[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2022, 35. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100381 . |
16 | WEBER T, BOWYER P, RECHID D, et al. Analysis of compound climate extremes and exposed population in Africa under two different emission scenarios[J]. Earth’s Future, 2020, 8(9). DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001473 . |
17 | AIHAITI A, JIANG Z H, ZHU L H, et al. Risk changes of compound temperature and precipitation extremes in China under 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2021, 264. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105838 . |
18 | FENG S F, WU X Y, HAO Z C, et al. A database for characteristics and variations of global compound dry and hot events[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2020, 30. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100299 . |
19 | WU Xinying, HAO Zengchao, ZHANG Xuan, et al. Distribution and trend of compound hot and dry events during summer in China[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2021(12): 90-98. |
19 | 武新英, 郝增超, 张璇, 等. 中国夏季复合高温干旱分布及变异趋势[J]. 水利水电技术, 2021(12): 90-98. |
20 | LI D L, CHEN Y, MESSMER M, et al. Compound wind and precipitation extremes across the indo-Pacific: climatology, variability, and drivers[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, 49(14). DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098594 . |
21 | MARTIUS O, PFAHL S, CHEVALIER C. A global quantification of compound precipitation and wind extremes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2016, 43(14): 7 709-7 717. |
22 | ZHANG Y Q, SUN X B, CHEN C C. Characteristics of concurrent precipitation and wind speed extremes in China[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2021, 32. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100322 . |
23 | YADDANAPUDI R, MISHRA A, HUANG W, et al. Compound wind and precipitation extremes in global coastal regions under climate change[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, 49(15). DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098974 . |
24 | WU Y, MIAO C Y, SUN Y, et al. Global observations and CMIP6 simulations of compound extremes of monthly temperature and precipitation[J]. GeoHealth, 2021, 5(5). DOI: 10.1029/2021GH000390 . |
25 | WU X Y, HAO Z C, HAO F H, et al. Variations of compound precipitation and temperature extremes in China during 1961-2014[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 663: 731-737. |
26 | ZHOU P, LIU Z Y. Likelihood of concurrent climate extremes and variations over China[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13(9). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aade9e . |
27 | ZHAO H D, ZHANG L N, KIRKHAM M B, et al. U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events[J]. Nature Communications, 2022, 13(1): 1-9. |
28 | TAVAKOL A, RAHMANI V, HARRINGTON J. Probability of compound climate extremes in a changing climate: a copula-based study of hot, dry, and windy events in the central United States[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15(10). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb1ef . |
29 | WANG J, CHEN Y, LIAO W L, et al. Anthropogenic emissions and urbanization increase risk of compound hot extremes in cities[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11(12): 1 084-1 089. |
30 | MA F, YUAN X. More persistent summer compound hot extremes caused by global urbanization[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48(15). DOI: 10.1029/2021GL093721 . |
31 | WANG J, CHEN Y, TETT S F B, et al. Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes[J]. Nature Communications, 2020, 11(1): 1-11. |
32 | WU S J, WANG P, TONG X L, et al. Urbanization-driven increases in summertime compound heat extremes across China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 799. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149166 . |
33 | YOU J W, WANG S. Higher probability of occurrence of hotter and shorter heat waves followed by heavy rainfall[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48(17). DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094831 . |
34 | NING G C, LUO M, ZHANG W, et al. Rising risks of compound extreme heat-precipitation events in China[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2022, 42(11): 5 785-5 795. |
35 | WU S J, CHAN T O, ZHANG W, et al. Increasing compound heat and precipitation extremes elevated by urbanization in South China[J]. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021, 9. DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.636777 . |
36 | LIU Mujia, YANG Xiuqin, YAO Fei, et al. Spatial-temporal changes in compound extreme flood-heatwave events over China during 1961-2020[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2023(4): 167-176. |
36 | 刘慕嘉, 杨秀芹, 姚飛, 等. 1961—2020年中国洪水—热浪复合极端事件时空变化特征[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2023(4): 167-176. |
37 | CHEN Y, LIAO Z, SHI Y, et al. Detectable increases in sequential flood-heatwave events across China during 1961-2018[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48(6). DOI: 10.1029/2021GL092549 . |
38 | LIAO Z, CHEN Y, LI W, et al. Growing threats from unprecedented sequential flood-hot extremes across China[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48(18). DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094505 . |
39 | AGHAKOUCHAK A, CHIANG F, HUNING L S, et al. Climate extremes and compound hazards in a warming world[J]. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2020, 48: 519-548. |
40 | POSCHLOD B, ZSCHEISCHLER J, SILLMANN J, et al. Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2020, 28. DOI:10.1029/2021GL094505 . |
41 | ZSCHEISCHLER J, SENEVIRATNE S I. Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events[J]. Science Advances, 2017, 3(6). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263 . |
42 | WANG R, Lü G N, NING L, et al. Likelihood of compound dry and hot extremes increased with stronger dependence during warm seasons[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2021, 260. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105692 . |
43 | HAO Z C, HAO F H, SINGH V P, et al. Quantifying the relationship between compound dry and hot events and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the global scale[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2018, 567: 332-338. |
44 | KANG Y, GUO E L, WANG Y F, et al. Characterisation of compound dry and hot events in Inner Mongolia and their relationship with large-scale circulation patterns[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2022, 612. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128296 . |
45 | WEN Z, YU R, ZHAI P M, et al. The evolution process of a prolonged compound drought and hot extreme event in Southwest China during the 2019 pre-monsoon season[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2023, 283. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106551 . |
46 | HAO Z C, HAO F H, XIA Y L, et al. Compound droughts and hot extremes: characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2022, 235. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241 . |
47 | CATTO J L, DOWDY A. Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2021, 32. DOI: 10.1016/J.WACE.2021.100313 . |
48 | National Bureau of Statistics of China. Statistical communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2022 national economic and social development[EB/OL]. 2023.[2023-02-28]. . |
49 | XIAO Z X, WANG Z Q, PAN W J, et al. Sensitivity of extreme temperature events to urbanization in the Pearl River Delta region[J]. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, 55(3): 373-386. |
50 | LIN L J, GAO T, LUO M, et al. Contribution of urbanization to the changes in extreme climate events in urban agglomerations across China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 744. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140264 . |
51 | VOGEL M M, HAUSER M, SENEVIRATNE S I. Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events’ clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15(9). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab90a7 . |
52 | MENG Y, HAO Z C, FENG S F, et al. Increase in compound dry-warm and wet-warm events under global warming in CMIP6 models[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2022, 210. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103773 . |
53 | LIU W B, SUN F B, FENG Y, et al. Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16(9). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac188f . |
54 | HE Y, HU X K, XU W, et al. Increased probability and severity of compound dry and hot growing seasons over world’s major croplands[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2022, 824. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153885 . |
55 | DESER C, LEHNER F, RODGERS K B, et al. Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10(4): 277-286. |
56 | WOOD R R, LEHNER F, PENDERGRASS A G, et al. Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16(8). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac10dd . |
57 | TOUMA D, STEVENSON S, SWAIN D L, et al. Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States[J]. Science Advances, 2022, 8(13). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm0320 . |
58 | MAHER N, MILINSKI S, SUAREZ-GUTIERREZ L, et al. The max Planck institute grand ensemble: enabling the exploration of climate system variability[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2019, 11(7): 2 050-2 069. |
59 | FENG Y, WANG H, SUN F B, et al. Dependence of compound hot and dry extremes on individual ones across China during 1961-2014[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2023, 283. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106553 . |
60 | YU H Q, LU N, FU B J, et al. Hotspots, co-occurrence, and shifts of compound and cascading extreme climate events in Eurasian drylands[J]. Environment International, 2022, 169. DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107509 . |
61 | SARHADI A, AUSíN M C, WIPER M P, et al. Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions[J]. Science Advances, 2018, 4(11). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3487 . |
62 | ZSCHEISCHLER J, LEHNER F. Attributing compound events to anthropogenic climate change[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, 103(3): E936-E953. |
63 | MATTHEWS T, WILBY R L, MURPHY C. An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2019, 9(8): 602-606. |
64 | KREIBICH H, van LOON A F, SCHR?TER K, et al. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management[J]. Nature, 2022, 608(7 921): 80-86. |
65 | van der WIEL K, LENDERINK G, de VRIES H. Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2021, 33. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100350 . |
66 | LU Ying, GUO Liangjie, HOU Yunyue, et al. Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment method applicated in urban land-use planning[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University (Engineering Science), 2015, 49(3):538-546. |
66 | 卢颖, 郭良杰, 侯云玥, 等. 多灾种耦合综合风险评估方法在城市用地规划中的应用[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2015, 49(3):538-546. |
67 | TILLOY A, MALAMUD B D, WINTER H, et al. A review of quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2019, 196. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102881 . |
/
〈 |
|
〉 |