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Advances in Earth Science >

2023 , Vol. 38 >Issue 3: 296 - 308

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.006

Analysis of Ground Settlement in the Yellow River Delta and Projection of Seawater Inundation

  • Rongrong NING ,
  • De WANG ,
  • Xinpeng TIAN ,
  • Yongwei ZHANG ,
  • Zixiang ZHOU ,
  • Fubin LUO
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  • 1.College of Geomatics Science and Technology, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, China
    2.Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai Shandong 264003, China
    3.Shandong Provincial Territorial Spatial Ecological Restoration Center, Jinan 250014, China
    4.Observation and Research Station of Land Use Security in the Yellow River Delta, Ministry of Natural Resources, Binzhou Shandong 251900, China
NING Rongrong (1997-), female, Enshi City, Hubei Province, Master student. Research area includes geographic information applications. E-mail: 1270670724@qq.com
WANG De (1977-), male, Rongcheng City, Shandong Province, Professor. Research areas include coastal zone landscape ecology and restoration ecology. E-mail: dwang@yic.ac.cn

Received date: 2022-08-13

  Revised date: 2022-12-09

  Online published: 2023-03-21

Supported by

the National Natural Science Foundation of China “The process of scrubbing in coastal wetlands of the Yellow River Delta and its mechanism of water and salt action”(31870468);The Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Provincial “Multi-source remote sensing monitoring and spatial differentiation of saline alkaline canopy in coastal wetlands”(ZR2020MD013)

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Abstract

In the context of global climate change, rising sea levels and ground subsidence are putting the Yellow River Delta at serious risk of seawater inundation, posing a threat to the future sustainable development of the Yellow River Delta. Projecting the relative sea level change in the Yellow River Delta due to ground subsidence can help to gain insight into the current seawater inundation risk and take timely measures to address it. First, the average subsidence rate from February 2016 to September 2019 was obtained based on SBAS-InSAR technology, and the accuracy of the InSAR results was further improved by using level data, with the maximum average subsidence rate reaching -357 mm/a after compensation. Combined with high-resolution imagery, it was found that the main cause of ground subsidence is the extraction of underground brine, oil, and gas. Second, combined with the distribution of subsidence sites, it was found that natural sedimentation continued to influence coastal subsidence. Finally, a seawater inundation model was developed using an active algorithm that combines the results of surface subsidence with confidence intervals for sea level rise under the SSP2-4.5 scenario in the IPCC AR6. The model results show that by 2030, 2050, and 2100, the percentage of seawater inundation area will be 6.76%~6.84%, 10.81%~11.11%, and 28.71%~30.92%, respectively, at the current subsidence rate. When the subsidence rate decreases to 50% and 25% of the current rate, the percentage of seawater inundation area is 5.84%~5.91%, 8.20%~8.40%, and 19.05%~21.51%, and 5.34%, 6.60%~6.69%, and 9.89%~11.62%, respectively. Compared to the threat of absolute sea level rise, the containment of subsidence rates will substantially reduce the risk of seawater inundation. The main types of land inundated by seawater are construction land, arable land, water bodies, and salt flats. The rate of seawater inundation of construction land, arable land, and water bodies will continue to accelerate over time. The results of this study can be used as a reference by relevant authorities to manage the development of soil and water resources as well as for disaster prevention in the Yellow River Delta.

Key words： Yellow River Delta; Land subsidence; SBAS-InSAR; Sea level rise; Seawater inundation

Cite this article

Rongrong NING , De WANG , Xinpeng TIAN , Yongwei ZHANG , Zixiang ZHOU , Fubin LUO . Analysis of Ground Settlement in the Yellow River Delta and Projection of Seawater Inundation[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2023 , 38(3) : 296 -308 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.006

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