The Influencing Factors of Critical Transition in Shallow Lakes Revealed by Model
Received date: 2020-11-28
Revised date: 2020-12-29
Online published: 2021-03-19
Supported by
the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences "One Three Five" Independent Deployment Project "The impact and mechanism of climate change on the resilience of typical shallow lake ecosystem"(NIGLAS2017GH01);The Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS(Award 2017364)
Eutrophication can cause critical transitions in shallow lakes and severely impair ecosystem services. Phosphorus is one of important environmental factors that cause critical transitions in lake ecosystems. Exploring the mechanisms of phosphorus dynamics in lakes is a key to lake management. This paper simulated the phosphorus concentration variations in lakes using a phosphorus kinetic model， and discussed the specific impacts of main model parameters on simulation output. Based on literature reviews， we discussed in detail the effects of different types of climate change and human activities on the critical transition time， hysteresis length， and restoration rate of lakes. The paper indicated that changes in factors such as climate change induced temperature warming， weakened light intensity， increased wind/waves and human activities caused biological disturbances and water level fluctuations would not change the threshold of transition or the time of transition， but would significantly delay the recovery time， decrease the recovery threshold and extend the lag period and the steady state. For the management of lake ecosystems， we suggested that it be important to consider the different impacts from different external perturbations on the process of critical transitions to avoid harmful tipping point.
Wenwen DENG , Rong WANG , Zhengwen LIU , Wenxiu ZHENG , Chenxue ZHANG . The Influencing Factors of Critical Transition in Shallow Lakes Revealed by Model[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2021 , 36(1) : 83 -94 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2021.005
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