ADEARTH

Advances in Earth Science >

2016 , Vol. 31 >Issue 10: 995 - 1000

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.0995.

Orginal Article

Research on the Global Warming Hiatus

  • Xiaopei Lin ,
  • Lixiao Xu ,
  • Jianping Li ,
  • Dehai Luo ,
  • Hailong Liu
Expand
  • 1.Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266100, China
    2.College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    3.RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    4.Institute of Oceanology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240, China

First author:Lin Xiaopei(1976-), male, Qingdao City, Shandong Province, Professor. Research areas include ocean dynamics.E-mail:linxiaop@ouc.edu.cn

*Corresponding author:Xu Lixiao(1985-), female, Laiwu City, Shandong Province, Lecture. Research areas include ocean-atmosphere interactions.E-mail:lxu@ouc.edu.cn

Received date: 2016-08-01

  Revised date: 2016-09-08

  Online published: 2016-10-20

Supported by

Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China “Research on the global warming hiatus: Identifying the phenomena and revealing the key mechanisms”(No.2016YFA0601800)

Copyright

地球科学进展 编辑部, 2016,
Fold

Abstract

A global warming “hiatus” has been observed since the beginning of the 21st century despite the increase in heat-trapping greenhouse gases, challenging the current global warming studies. Focusing on the phenomena and mechanisms of the global warming “hiatus”, the National Key Research Program of China launched a project in July, 2016. The main research themes of this project cover: ①Revealing the spatial and temporal variability of the global warming hiatus, and quantifying the contributions of external forcing and internal (natural) variability, respectively; ②Revealing the role of the atmosphere in the global heat and energy redistribution under global warming hiatus; ③Revealing the role of the ocean in the global heat and energy redistribution under global warming hiatus; ④Investigating the predictability of the global warming hiatus. The key scientific issues to be resolved include: ①Identifying characteristics of the global warming hiatus and discerning the roles of decadal, multi-decadal oscillations; ②Revealing the role of ocean-atmosphere dynamical processes in the global redistribution of heat and energy; ③Understanding the predictability of the global warming hiatus. The research aims to predict the future development of the global warming hiatus, and to point out the possible impacts on China and other important areas, including “The Belt and Road” core area and the Polar Regions.

Key words： Global warming hiatus; Decadal/multi-decadal variability; Redistribution of heat and energy; Predictability.

Cite this article

Xiaopei Lin , Lixiao Xu , Jianping Li , Dehai Luo , Hailong Liu . Research on the Global Warming Hiatus[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2016 , 31(10) : 995 -1000 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.0995.

References

[1] Easterling D R, Wehner M F.Is the climate warming or cooling?[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(8),doi: 10.1029/2009GL037810.
[2] Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang B,et al.Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J]. Science, 2015, 348(6 242): 1 469-1 472.
[3] Cowtan K, Way R G.Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2014, 140(683): 1 935-1 944.
[4] Lewandowsky S, Risbey J S, Oreskes N.On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming[J]. Scientific Reports, 2015, 5, doi:10.1038/srep16784.
[5] Held I M.Climate science: The cause of the pause[J].Nature, 2013, 501(7 467): 318-319.
[6] Schmidt G A, Shindell D T, Tsigaridis K.Reconciling warming trends[J].Nature Geoscience, 2014, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2105.
[7] Santer B D, Bonfils C, Painter J F,et al.Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014, 7(3): 185-189.
[8] Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T.An apparent hiatus in global warming?[J].Earth’s Future, 2013, 1(1): 19-32.
[9] Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T,et al.Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods[J].Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1(7): 360-364.
[10] Meehl G A, Hu A, Arblaster J M,et al.Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation[J].Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(18): 7 298-7 310.
[11] Kosaka Y, Xie S P.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J].Nature, 2013, 501(7 467): 403-407.
[12] Dai A, Fyfe J C, Xie S P,et al.Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5(6): 555-559.
[13] Li J, Sun C, Jin F F.NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(20): 5 497-5 502.
[14] Sun C, Li J, Jin F F.A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO[J].Climate Dynamics, 2015, 45(7/8): 2 083-2 099.
[15] McGregor S, Timmermann A, Stuecker M F,et al. Recent walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(10): 888-892.
[16] Lee S K, Park W, Baringer M O,et al.Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2015, 8(6): 445-449.
[17] Huang R X.Heaving modes in the world oceans[J].Climate Dynamics, 2015, 45(11/12): 3 563-3 591.
[18] England M H, McGregor S, Spence P,et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(3): 222-227.
[19] Drijfhout S S, Blaker A T, Josey S A, et al.Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014, 41(22): 7 868-7 874.
[20] Chen X, Tung K K.Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration[J].Science, 2014, 345(6 199): 897-903.
[21] Long S M, Xie S P, Zheng X T,et al.Fast and slow responses to global warming: Sea surface temperature and precipitation patterns[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27(1): 285-299.
[22] Liu W, Xie S P, Lu J.Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus[J].Nature Communications, 2016, 7, doi:10.1038/ncomms10926.
[23] Screen J A, Simmonds I.The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification[J]. Nature, 2010, 464(7 293): 1 334-1 337.
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉

Address: No. 8, Tianshui Middle Road, Lanzhou, Gansu
QQ：114723517
Tel：0931-8762293　E-mail：adearth@lzb.ac.cn
陇ICP备2021001824号-5　 甘公网安备62010202000687