Orginal Article

Changes of Extreme Indices over China in Response to 1.5 ℃ Global Warming Projected by a Regional Climate Model

  • Donghuan Li ,
  • Liwei Zou ,
  • Tianjun Zhou
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  • 1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3.Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Nanjing 210023, China

First author:Li Donghuan (1990-), female, Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province, Ph.D. Student.Research areas include climate modeling.E-mail:lidh@lasg.iap.ac.cn

*Corresponding author:Zou Liwei (1984-), male, Qingliu City, Fujian Province, Associate professor. Research areas include development and application of regional climate model.E-mail:zoulw@mail.iap.ac.cn

Received date: 2017-02-02

  Revised date: 2017-04-02

  Online published: 2017-04-20

Supported by

Project Supportd by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) “Development and research of ensemble decadal climate prediction system based on global climate models FGOALS-s, CMA and CESM”(No.GYHY201506012);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “Parameter calibration of climate models in the simulation of East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon”(No.41575105)

Copyright

地球科学进展 编辑部, 2017,

Abstract

The possible changes of extreme climates over China under 1.5 ℃ global warming scenario were investigated by using the output of CORDEX (COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) experiments with a regional air-sea coupled model FROALS over East Asia domain. Results indicated that compared to the baseline period of 1986-2005, warm events would significantly increase while cold events would significantly decrease over China in a 1.5 ℃ warmer world. The risks of extreme and moderate warm events would be 2.14 and 1.93 times of that in the baseline period, respectively. The risks of extreme and moderate cold events would be 0.58 and 0.63 times of that in the baseline period, respectively. Compared to other sub-regions, the increasing amplitude of extreme warm events would be higher in North China, while the decreasing amplitude of extreme cold events would be higher in Northeast China. Risks of extreme dry events would increase in Northwest China, Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China (1.13, 1.02 and 1.22 times of that in baseline period). Precipitation intensity and extreme wet events would increase significantly over most parts of China, and the increasing amplitudes extreme wet events will be higher in North China and South China (1.88 and 1.85 times of that in the baseline period). Days when people may feel uncomfortable would increase significantly in eastern China, and compared to simple extreme warm events, the increasing amplitude of extreme uncomfortable days would be larger. The absolute changes of heating degree-days would be larger than that of cooling degree-days (-258℃·d and 72℃·d, respectively) in eastern China, but the relative change of heating degree-days would be smaller than cooling degree-days (-10% and 82%, respectively).

Cite this article

Donghuan Li , Liwei Zou , Tianjun Zhou . Changes of Extreme Indices over China in Response to 1.5 ℃ Global Warming Projected by a Regional Climate Model[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2017 , 32(4) : 446 -457 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0446

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