Analysis and Evaluation of Calculation Methods of Carbon Transfer Emissions in Import and Export of China
Received date: 2011-04-21
Revised date: 2011-09-01
Online published: 2011-10-10
There are lots of calculation methods of emissions embodied presently. This paper compares the inputoutput models, the calculation methods of carbon embodied intensity in exports, and analyzes the data processing methods and their results. The recent results show the calculation methods are different, but the general conclusions and the change trend are similar. The emission embodied in export and the emission embodied in import increased significantly in 19972007, and the former increased from 314~881 MtCO2 to 1 725~2 633 MtCO2, with an increase from 10%～23% to 27%～35%, accouting for total emission embodied. Deducting the emission embodied in import, the net embodied emission which transfers to China increased from 176~733 MtCO2 to 1 137~2 257 MtCO2, with an increase from 5%～20% to 17%～30%, accouting for total emission embodied. There were two main reasons that caused great differences on emissions embodied: first, the calculation methods of carbon intensity are different; second, the understanding of emissions embodied of Chinese processing trade is different. Comparing different results in 2004, when they used multi-regional input-out model, single-regional input-out model with main import-countries instead and direct calculation model, there were no significant difference. When calculating emission avoided by imports, if we do not consider improvement trade, it maybe result in an opposite conclusion, for example in 2002. However，because of high scale effect, when the export is much higher than imports, error caused by uncertainty can be ignored and will not impact the final conclusion. Based on recent research summary, we found the ratio of exports to GDP and the proportion of exports of total emissions emissions are related. So using this kind of relationship, we analyzed the reasonableness of existing research, and the results shows from 1997 to 2007, ratio of exports to GDP increased from 19.19% to 37.11% steadily, and the proportion of exports of total emissions emissions increased from 18%～23% to 33%～35%.
Fang Xiuqi, Wang Yuan, Wei Benyong, Wang Wenqin . Analysis and Evaluation of Calculation Methods of Carbon Transfer Emissions in Import and Export of China[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2011 , 26(10) : 1101 -1108 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.10.1101
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