Analysis on the Future Energy Consumption and Preliminary Discussion on Carbon Emission of China from the Perspective Urbanization
Received date: 2010-09-29
Revised date: 2010-12-20
Online published: 2011-01-10
Industrialization and urbanization are two major trends of China's future development. Former predictions on China′s future energy consumption and carbon emission mostly started from the aspect of industrialization, which ignored the huge amount of residential energy consumption related with urbanization. Urbanization is of great importance for improving life quality and satisfies man′s right for subsistence and development. We proposed three core items related with China′s urbanization, i.e. the increasing of urbanization rate, the improving of urban residents′ life quality, and the shaking off of poverty of povertystricken people. Resulted indicated that there are considerable room and obvious trends of residential energy increasing. Model consisting of productive and residential energy consumption was built based on the analysis, and the modeling results indicated that although the increasing of productive energy consumption would slow down, or even the amount tend to be stable, the total energy consumption will tend to grow significantly thanking for the fast increase of residential energy consumption. The peak of total energy consumption will be far away from former judgments. Therefore, it seems impossible that the carbon emission would decline in the near future for the close relationship between carbon emission and energy consumption. At last, the authors suggest that, on the one hand, we promote green development and lowcarbon economy; on the other hand, we pay more carefulness on the international negotiation on reduction and space allocation of carbon emission, in order to avoid putting ourselves in a passive position.
Key words： Urbanization; Residential energy; Carbon emission; Energy consumption; Prediction.
Fan Jie, Li Pingxing . Analysis on the Future Energy Consumption and Preliminary Discussion on Carbon Emission of China from the Perspective Urbanization[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2011 , 26(1) : 57 -65 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.01.0057
[1]Qi Yuchun, Dong Yunshe. Emission of greenhouse gases from energy field and mitigation countermeasures in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2004,24(5):528-534.[齐玉春, 董云社. 中国能源领域温室气体排放现状及减排对策研究[J]. 地理科学,2004,24(5):528-534.]
[2]IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers[C]∥Solomon S,Qin D, Manning M,et al,eds.Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA，2007.
[3]Zhang Renjian, Wang Mingxing, Zheng Xunhua,et al. Analysis on present emission status of Carbon dioxidein China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2001, 6(3): 321-327.[张仁健, 王明星, 郑循华, 等. 中国二氧化碳排放源现状分析[J].气候与环境研究,2001,6(3):321-327.]
[4]Lu Dadao, Fan Jie. 2050: Regional Development in China[M].Beijing, Science Press,2009.[陆大道, 樊杰.2050: 中国的区域发展[M].北京: 科学出版社, 2009.]
[5]Liang Jinshe, Zheng Wei, Cai Jianming. The decomposition of energy consumption growth in China: Based on input-output model[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2007, 22(6): 853-864.[梁进社, 郑蔚, 蔡建明. 中国能源消费增长的分解——基于投入产出方法[J].自然资源学报,2007, 22(6): 853-864.]
[6]Chen Jun, Cheng Jinhua, Wu Qiaosheng. The energy consumption and the level of industrialization among regional differences in China[J].China Population, Resources and Environment,2007, 17(5): 59-64.[陈军, 成金华, 吴巧生.工业化水平区域差异与中国能源消费[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007, 17(5): 59-64.]
[7]Yu Xiang.Analysis on the structure and amount of energy consumption during the industrialization of China[J].Economic Review,2007,(6): 66-72.[余翔. 中国工业化进程中能源消费的结构及总量分析[J]. 经济评论, 2007,(6): 66-72.]
[8]Zhang Xiaoping. Temporal-spatial characteristics of energy consumption in China and its determinants since the 1990s[J].China population, resources and environment,2005, 15(2): 38-41.[张晓平.20世纪90年代以来中国能源消费的时空格局及其影响因素[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2005, 15(2):38-41.]
[9]Zheng Yunhe. Research on industrialization, urbanization, marketization and energy consumption of China[J].North Economic,2006, (10): 11-12.[郑云鹤. 工业化、城市化、市场化与中国的能源消费研究[J]. 北方经济,2006,(10):11-12.]
[10]Qiu Baoxing. Challenges and strategies for China’s urbanization[J].Urban Studies,2010, 17(1): 1-7.[仇保兴. 城镇化的挑战与希望[J]. 城市发展研究,2010, 17(1):1-7.]
[11]Lu Dadao. Urbanization process and spatial sprawl in China[J].Urban Planning Forum,2007,(4):47-52.[陆大道. 我国的城镇化进程与空间扩张[J]. 城市规划学刊,2007,(4): 47-52.]
[12]Druckman A, Jackson T. The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input output model[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(7): 2 066-2 077.
[13]Carlsson-Kanyama A, Engström R,Kok R, et al. Indirect and direct energy requirements of city households in Sweden: Options for reduction, lessons from modeling[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2005, 9(1/2): 221-235.
[14]Residential energy consumption survey home energy uses and costs[R/OL]. http:∥www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/contents.html,2010.[ZK）]
[15]Reinders A H M E, Vringer K, Blok K,et al. The direct and indirect energy requirement of households in the European Union[J].Energy Policy,2003, 31: 139-153.
[16]Zhang Qingyuan. Residential energy consumption in China and its comparison with Japan, Canada, and USA[J].Energy and Buildings,2004,36: 1 217-1 225.
[17]State Council Research Office Discussion Group. Chinese Migrant Workers Investigation Report[M].Beijing: China Yanshi Press,2006: 3-4,73.[国务院研究室课题组. 中国农民工调研报告[M].北京: 中国言实出版社, 2006:3-4,73.]
[18]Fan Jie, Liang Yutian, Tao Anjun,et al. Energy policies for sustainable livelihoods and sustainable development of poor areas in China[J].Energy policy,2011, accepted.
[19]Sheng Kerong. Research on Major Function Construction and Sustainable Development of Relative Poor Regions: A Case Study of Zhaotong City in Yunnan Province[D].Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, 2006.[盛科荣. 相对贫困地区主体功能建设与可持续发展研究——以云南昭通为例对我国江河上中游相对贫困地区的探讨[D].中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2006.]
[20]Wang Xiaohua, Feng Zhenmin, Bao Xinfeng,et al. Rural household energy consumption in Yangzhong county[J].Transactions of CSAE,1998, (1): 142-147.[王效华, 冯祯民, 包信峰, 等. 江苏扬中农村家庭生活用能和能源消费的研究[J].农业工程学报,1998,(1): 142-147.]
[21]China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development. Issues about Energy, Environment, and Adaption to Climate Change during Rural Development of China[R/OL].http:∥www.cciced.net/ztbd_1/agm/thefourth_1/agm09/relatedoc/200911/ P020100310356404471679.pdf,2009.[中国环境与发展国际合作委员会. 中国农村发展中的能源、环境及适应气候变化问题[R/OL].http:∥www.cciced. net/ztbd_1/agm/thefourth_1/agm09/relatedoc/200911/P020100310-356404471679.pdf,2009.]
[22]Special Thematic Research Group of Ministry of Housing and UrbanRural Development of P.R.China (former Ministry of Construction).Report on the amelioration of living conditions of rural migrant workers[J]. Housing Security,2006,(2): 8-12.[建设部专题调研组.改善农村进城务工人员居住条件调研报告[J]. 住房保障,2006, (2): 8-12.] [23]Li Bin, Wang Xiaojing. The housing of urban farmer worker[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang University,2006,8(5): 16-21.[李斌, 王晓京. 城市农民工的住房[J].石家庄学院学报,2006, 8(5): 16-21. ]
[24]Huang Zhuaoning. Empirical study on sources and level of houses of rural migrant workers[J].South China Review,2007,(9): 59-73.[黄卓宁. 农民工住房来源及住房水平的实证研究[J]. 珠江经济, 2007, (9): 59-73. ]
[25]Wu Qunli,Sang Liyang, Li Yuzhao. Report on housing security of rural migrant workers: A case study of Nanjing[J].Science and Technology Innovation Herald,2009,(19):3.[吴群莉,桑黎阳,李雨钊.农民工住房保障现状调查报告——以南京市为例[J].科技创新导报, 2009,(19): 3.]
[26]Wang Kai, Hou Aimin, Zhai Qing. A review on the housing conditions of migrant workers in urban of China[J].Urban Studies,2010,17(1): 118-122.[王凯, 侯爱敏, 翟青. 城市农民工住房问题的研究综述[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(1): 118-122.]
[27]He Shenjing,Liu Yuting, Wu Fulong. Poverty profiles and poverty determinants of different social groups in Nanjing[J].Geographical Research,2010,29(4):703-715.[何深静, 刘玉亭, 吴缚龙. 南京市不同社会群体的贫困集聚度、贫困特征及其决定因素[J].地理研究, 2010,29(4): 703-715.]
[28]Farahbakhsh H, Ugursal V I, Fung A S.A residential enduse energy consumption model[J].International Journal of Energy Research,1998,22:1 133-1 143.
[29]Pan Jiahua,Zhu Xianli.An analysis of basic needs for human development and its applications in the design of global climate regime: The case of China for energy and emissions demand[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2006,16(6):23-30.[潘家华, 朱仙丽.人文发展的基本需求分析及其在国际气候制度设计中的应用——以中国能源与碳排放需要为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):23-30.]
[30]Ding Zhongli, Duan Xiaonan, Ge Quansheng,et al. Control of atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050: An allocation on the emission rights of different countries[J].Science in China (Series D),2009, 39(8): 1 009-1 027.[丁仲礼,段晓男,葛全胜,等.2050年大气CO2浓度控制: 各国排放权计算[J].中国科学: D辑,2009,39(8): 1 009-1 027.]
[31]Fan Jie, Li Pingxing, Liang Yutian. Framework of final consumption oriented research on carbon footprints: New idea of research on carbon emissions supporting the environmental diplomacy of China[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2010, 25(1): 61-68.[樊杰, 李平星, 梁育填. 个人终端消费导向的碳足迹研究框架——支撑我国环境外交的碳排放研究新思路[J]. 地球科学进展, 2010, 25(1): 61-68.]
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
甘公网安备62010202000687
