Advances in Earth Science ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (8): 866-875. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.08.0866

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A Review of Stochastic Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity for Disaster Risk Assessment

Fang Weihua1,2,3Shi Xianwu1,2







  1. 1. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University,Beijing〓100875, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and
  • Received:2012-02-06 Revised:2012-05-18 Online:2012-08-10 Published:2012-08-10

Fang Weihua,Shi Xianwu. A Review of Stochastic Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity for Disaster Risk Assessment[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2012, 27(8): 866-875.

The samples of Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity play an essential role in TC disaster risk modeling. However, inadequate historical records may introduce great bias into risk assessment results if traditional probabilistic method is used. In order to solve the challenge, the methodology for developing stochastic TC events have been  proposed and improved greatly in the past 20 years  based on the understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of TC observations. By generating a large amount of stochastic TC events, the methodology is able to make full use of historical TC information. In this paper, the latest progress of the analysis of TC spatiotemporal characteristics, and the methods for the stochastic modeling of annual occurrence, seasonal distribution, genesis, track forward velocity and direction, decay and intensity of TC are systematically reviewed. The applications of the methodology for tropical risk assessment in different ocean basins and countries are also outlined. In addition, the potential of the methodology in the fields of risk assessment, insurance, design code, and emergency planning are also discussed.

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