The matching of water and land resources often directly affects food production in various regions and is the basis for high-quality economic and social development and modernization of agricultural production. Using nine provinces along the Yellow River as examples, based on the cross-coupling of four elements, such as the natural background of water resources and water resources for total water consumption control, this study constructed a ternary synergistic model of water-cultivated land-grain by cross-coupling. The matching coefficients of water and soil resources from 2010 to 2020 under each scenario were calculated, and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of water and soil resources matching along the “province-city” scale of the nine provinces along the Yellow River and the contribution degree of each element were analyzed. The results showed that:
The matching degree of binary water and soil resources based on the natural background of water resources in the nine provinces was improved as a whole, and the matching pattern of water and soil resources was relatively stable; however, the regional differences are notable and manifested as “high in the west and low in the east.”
Along the three-way coordinated matching pattern of water-arable land and grain in the nine provinces, from the perspective of the total amount of cultivated land and the amount of irrigated arable land in the natural background of water resources, roughly three distribution patterns were presented: the western and northeastern regions were severely water-deficient areas, the northern and north-central regions typically had varying degrees of water shortage, and the central and eastern regions exhibited a diversified distribution pattern; from the perspective of total water consumption control, a remarkable difference is observed between the total amount of cultivated land and the three-way cooperative matching pattern of irrigated cultivated ground.
Under the four scenarios, the average contribution rate of water resources were >50%, and the sum of the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water and the contribution rate of the irrigation quota were >30%, indicating that increasing the effective utilization coefficient and setting a reasonable irrigation quota had a decisive impact on the change in water and soil resource matching. These results improve our understanding of the relationship between water resources and exploitation, cultivated land production capacity, and reclamation, as well as the interdependence and constraints of the grain planting structure.