Advances in Earth Science ›› 2023, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 111-124. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.003

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Research Progress of Shanghai Operational Intelligent Forecast Technologies on Severe Convection

Leiming MA 1 , 2( ), Hong LIN 1 , 2, Hai CHU 1 , 2, Chunguang YIN 2, Junping ZHANG 3, Lei CHEN 1, Haibin WANG 1, Kang XU 1, Xuliang FAN 1   

  1. 1.Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030, China
    2.Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030, China
    3.Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
  • Received:2022-09-23 Revised:2022-12-28 Online:2023-02-10 Published:2023-03-02
  • About author:MA Leiming (1975-), male, Shihezi City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Professor. Research areas include typhoon, numerical prediction, artificial intelligence technology. E-mail:
  • Supported by:
    the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Study on the mechanism of atmospheric processes at the top of the boundary layer affecting the intensity of deep convection and parameterized closure”(41975069);Shanghai Municipal Commission of Science and Technology “Research and application of key technologies of digital simulator for sudden disastrous weather (strong convection)”(18DZ1200400)

Leiming MA, Hong LIN, Hai CHU, Chunguang YIN, Junping ZHANG, Lei CHEN, Haibin WANG, Kang XU, Xuliang FAN. Research Progress of Shanghai Operational Intelligent Forecast Technologies on Severe Convection[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2023, 38(2): 111-124.

Severe convective weather systems often cause rainstorms, lightning, gales, hail, and other disasters owing to their small spatial scale and rapid and violent development. Accurate forecasting has always been a difficult and bottleneck problem in the international meteorological field, and it is the focus of disaster prevention and mitigation in Shanghai. This research introduces key technologies developed by the Shanghai Meteorological Department in recent years, such as self-adaptive networking observation of strong convection targets, intelligent identification and prediction of strong convection abrupt structural features, machine learning correction of numerical prediction errors, and system integration. Based on this, an intelligent monitoring and early warning system that can simulate the three-dimensional structure and evolution of a strong convective system is established and applied, which has significantly improved the early warning capability fo severe convection in Shanghai. Relevant technical achievements have provided support for major services such as the China International Import Expo (CIIE) and have been promoted for application in urban disaster prevention and mitigation.

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