Advances in Earth Science ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5): 505-518. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2022.024
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Mingrui JIA 1 , 2( ), Jintao ZHANG 3, Fang WANG 1( )
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Mingrui JIA, Jintao ZHANG, Fang WANG. Changes in Thermal Comfort Conditions Throughout the Belt-and-Road Region in Response to Nationally Committed Emission Reductions Under the Paris Agreement[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2022, 37(5): 505-518.
Based on the global climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), we have adopted the Net Effective Temperature (NET), a comprehensive indicator of the integrative effect of temperature, humidity, and wind speed, to analyze the changes in the regional climate comfort pattern throughout the Belt-and-Road region in response to nationally committed emission reductions under the Paris Agreement. Our results indicate that, under future climate scenarios, the number of warm-uncomfortable days increased and the number of cold-uncomfortable days decreased in the region, and there was a clear spatial mismatch between the two signals. The changes in comfort days were characterized by strong spatial heterogeneity. The number of cold-uncomfortable days at mid to high altitudes decreases remarkably, which is the same as in Central and Eastern Europe, Siberia, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the number of comfortable days increased by a moderate amount. The number of warm-uncomfortable days at low latitudes increased significantly, such as in Southeast Asia and South Asia, while the number of comfortable days decreased substantially. Further analysis combined with the population distribution shows that the population which will be exposed to warm uncomfortable weather increases sharply, while the population which will be exposed to comfortable and cold uncomfortable weather decreases. The increase in the former significantly exceeds the decrease in the latter two; hence, the overall climatic comfort throughout the Belt-and-Road region deteriorates. This adverse effect can be mitigated if the emission reduction effort is further strengthened beyond the current climate policy.