Advances in Earth Science ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 478-487. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.33

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Spatio-temporal Distribution of Famine and Its Relationship with Climate, Disaster, Harvest in North China During 1736-1911

Lingbo Xiao( )   

  1. Institute of Qing History, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2020-01-07 Revised:2020-03-15 Online:2020-05-10 Published:2020-06-05
  • Contact: Lingbo Xiao E-mail:xlingbo1@163.com
  • Supported by:
    the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Impact of climate change and extreme disasters on the food security and its spatio-temporal differences in North China in the Qing dynasty”(41501207);“Case study of social system ‘Entry-Exit Transition’ induced by information dissemination of climate extremes”(41771572)

Lingbo Xiao. Spatio-temporal Distribution of Famine and Its Relationship with Climate, Disaster, Harvest in North China During 1736-1911[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2020, 35(5): 478-487.

Based on records on famine kept in historical documents, 2950 famine events counted with “county time” in North China during 1736-1911 were collected, and annual famine index series in North China was reconstructed using weighted average method according to the severity of famine. Spatio-temporal distribution of famine and its relationship with climate, disaster and harvest was analyzed. The research shows that variation of temperature and precipitation has significant negative correlation with poor harvest and famine. The drought has a more significant correlation with harvest and famine than flood. In 1736-1795 when was at the peak of the Qing dynasty, the sensitivity of poor harvest and famine to drought was significantly lower than in 1796-1911 when was in decline, because effective social response to disaster could reduce the risk of poor harvest and famine. Using the kernel density estimation method, three main high risk areas of famine were indentified: Fen River Valley in south Shanxi Province, south-central He'nan Province, and the junction of Hebei, Shandong and He'nan Province. In general, there is significant corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution of drought, poor harvest and famine, however, abnormally high probability of famine in south-central He'nan Province might be related to local special socio-economic vulnerability. This study would enhance our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and socioeconomic system. Further research would focus on the mechanism by which famine originated in the past, and the pathway through which climatic impacts were delivered in human society.

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