Advances in Earth Science
Xiaxiang Li, Changxin Liu, Fang Wang, Zhixin Hao. The Impact of China’s Investment on Economic Growth and Carbon Emission Intensity in the “Belt and Road”[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2020, 35(6): 618-631.
Increasing green investment is one of the important ways to promote sustainable development in the Belt and Road (B&R) region. We predicted the effects of China’s investments on the CO2 emission patterns in B&R areas under the scenarios of No-Investment (NIS), Business-as-usual Investment (BIS) and the Strengthening Investment Scenario (SIS) based on the improved Solow model and a CO2 intensity model. The results reveal that the GDP of B&R region will cumulatively increase by 45.16 and 97.02 trillion USD, and the CO2 will cumulatively decrease by 44.16 and 79.47 Gt by 2100, respectively, under BIS and SIS, compared with NIS. The cumulative decrease of CO2 emissions, 44.16 and 79.47 Gt, will lead to global CO2 concentration decrease by approximately 2.41 mL/m3 and 4.33 mL/m3 in 2100, respectively. Regionally, China’s investments have the most obvious role in promoting the economic development and CO2 emission reductions of Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas. In the short term (2017-2050), China's investment may lead to a small increase in CO2 emissions in Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas, India and the Central and Eastern Europe, but in the long term (2017-2100), China's investment will promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in all regions, especially in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas and the Middle East Central Asia region. This shows that China's investment is conducive to promoting the green development of the B&R regions.