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Advances in Earth Science  2011, Vol. 26 Issue (6): 678-684    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.06.0678
Analysis and Prediction of Sea-Level-Change Multi-Scale -Cycle for East China Sea
Wang Guodong1, Kang Jiancheng1, Han Guoqi2, Liu Chao1, Yan Guodong1
1. Urban Ecology and Environmental Research Center, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai200234, China;
2.Fisheries and Oceans Department, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Newfoundland, Canada
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Research of sea level change has become the hot issue in the world, especially in the variability cycle and upward trend of sea level. In this paper, wavelet transform was applied in the sea-level change multi-scale cycle analysis of monthly average data signal in East China Sea, and future sea-level change was predicted by the way of winters exponential smoothing. The results show: ① Sea level showed upward trend in volatility in East China between 1992 to 2009, the annual average growth rate was up to about 0.39 cm/a; it had multi-scale cycle feature as follows: 2 to 3 months, 12 months (1a), 24 months (2a), 36 months (3 a), 48 months (4a), 55 months (4.6a). ② Sea level data denoising signal showed upward trend more obvious than the original signal. Compared to annual maximum of sea level height (in annual summer and autumn), sea level rise was more evident, and the average growth rate is up to about 0.78cm/a, and it was 2 times of the average annual growth rate. ③ Future sea level changes (after 2006) will maintain an upward trend with fluctuations in East China Sea. Annual average growth rate will be about 0.49 cm/a. By 2015, sea level rise rate will be about 4 cm to 5 cm higher than 2006; The rate of sea level rise will increase to about 14 cm to 15 cm by the year 2030 on the basis of the year 2006.

Key words:  East China Sea      Sea Level Change      Wavelet transform             Winters exponential smoothing     
Received:  03 November 2010      Published:  10 June 2011
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Wang Guodong, Kang Jiancheng, Han Guoqi, Liu Chao, Yan Guodong. Analysis and Prediction of Sea-Level-Change Multi-Scale -Cycle for East China Sea. Advances in Earth Science, 2011, 26(6): 678-684.

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