收稿日期: 2005-12-20
网络出版日期: 2006-02-15
基金资助
NKBRSF-2006CB400505, Supported by NSFC-40271005, National “985 Project”: Public Security Policy Platform of BNU
Vulnerability Identification and Assessment of Agriculture Drought Disaster in China
Received date: 2005-12-20
Online published: 2006-02-15
旱灾是世界上影响面最广、造成农业损失最大的自然灾害类型，世界近一半的国家干旱严重。中国旱灾频繁，每年旱灾损失占各种自然灾害损失的15%以上，随着人口和农业的快速发展，农业承灾体脆弱性对灾情的放大也在增加。基于灾害系统理论，从致灾因子和耕地承灾体的区域组合角度，在旱灾频发高值区，选择雨养农业、灌溉农业和水田农业为主要承灾体类型，构建了农业旱灾脆弱性生产压力和生活压力，灾前—灾中易损性和灾中—灾后适应性等农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性诊断指标体系。提出脆弱性评价的区域模型，即：雨养农业的易损—适应模型（兴和）、灌溉农业的生产—生活压力模型（邢台）和水田农业的需水—灌水模型（鼎城）。基于农业承灾体脆弱性评价，提出制定适应降水变化的波动土地利用结构调整区域政策、建立农业生态—生产范式、建立“水银行”管理机制、建立用水效益和开源节流的评估体系以及加强“截水—抽水—控水”为一体的灌溉系统工程建设，提高灌溉应急能力等对策，以期为农业旱灾的防御和区域粮食安全决策提供科学依据。
商彦蕊 , 王静爱 , 刘珍 , 王志强 , 洪世奇 , 苏筠 . 中国旱灾农业承灾体脆弱性诊断与评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006 , 21(2) : 161 -169 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.02.0161
Based on regional combination of the hazard-formation factors and hazard-affected bodies, distributing disciplinarian of the agriculture hazard-affected bodies and the centers of drought disaster in China are found. According to the primary style of hazard-affected bodies, such as the rainfed field (Xinghe County), the irrigated field (Xingtai County) & the paddy field (Dingcheng County), this paper sets up vulnerability identification index system of agriculture drought disaster; establishes regional assessment model of agriculture drought vulnerability, such as the frangibility-adaptability model of the rainfed field, the production-living pressure model of the irrigated field and the water demand-supply model of the paddy field. Taking Xinghe County as a case, agriculture drought vulnerability assessment is also carried. The formation of hazard-affected bodies vulnerability and regional sustainable development is discussed, and some scientific advices for the defense of agriculture drought disaster and disaster mitigation are put forward.
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