陆面过程的可预报性研究进展与展望
收稿日期: 2025-04-11
修回日期: 2025-06-12
网络出版日期: 2025-06-28
基金资助
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0805202);国家自然科学基金项目(42175077);国家自然科学基金项目(42475063)
Predictability of Land Surface Processes: Research Progress and Prospects
Received date: 2025-04-11
Revised date: 2025-06-12
Online published: 2025-06-28
Supported by
the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805202);The National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175077)
陆面是地球系统的重要组成部分。陆面通过能量、水分和碳氮循环等过程，与大气相互耦合和相互作用，对天气和气候系统产生重要影响。陆面过程的数值模拟和预报研究是当前国际学术界的热点之一。然而，目前陆面过程的数值模拟和预报研究仍存在较大的不确定性。评估目前陆面过程的数值模拟和预报的不确定性程度，探寻其不确定性来源，并研究减少这种不确定性的方法和途径，均属于陆面过程可预报性的研究范畴。从气候变化和模式物理过程角度，回顾了目前陆面过程可预报性研究的3个问题：一是气候变化和模式物理过程不确定性，对陆面过程数值模拟和预测不确定性的影响程度；二是导致上述不确定性的关键物理过程；三是如何利用目标观测和集合预报提高陆面过程的数值模拟能力和预测技巧。最后，针对如何提高陆面过程的数值模拟能力和预测技巧进行了展望，包括如何对敏感的物理参数进行加强观测，以及集合预报技术的进一步拓展。
孙国栋 , 彭飞 , 任秋杰 , 张琦渝 , 岳丹丹 . 陆面过程的可预报性研究进展与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2025 , 40(7) : 661 -671 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.050
Land surfaces are important components of the Earth’s system. The land surface has an important influence on the weather and climate system through processes such as energy, moisture, carbon, and nitrogen cycles, coupling, and interactions with the atmosphere. The study of numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes is a hot topic in international research. However, the numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes are subject to large uncertainties. Assessing the current level of uncertainty in numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes, searching for sources of uncertainty in numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes, and exploring ways and means to reduce the uncertainty in numerical modelling and forecasting of land surface processes fall within the scope of research on the predictability of land surface processes. This paper reviews the progress of the author's research in these three areas and discusses key scientific issues and techniques that need to be focused on in future research on the predictability of land-surface processes.
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