Abstract:Summer hot extremes, one of major meteorological disasters over China, have severe impacts on
people's lives and health, economic and social development, and natural ecosystem. To address the nation’s
critical need to prevent and deal with hot-temperature-related disaster risks, we have independently developed a
prediction model system for summer hot extremes over China based on obtained new scientific understanding.
The developed model system can relatively accurately predict the spatial pattern and anomalies of summer hot
extremes since 2018 over China, signifying stable and good prediction skills. In May 2025, by using the
prediction model system we predicted that summer hot days in 2024 will be 12.55 days, which are 2.69 more
days than those in normal years (1991-2020 average); hot extremes in this summer will have more severe effects,
significant above-average disaster risks and larger regional differences. The most significant more-than-normal
hot extremes will occur over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, South China, the Sichuan
Basin, southern Xinjiang, northern Jiangsu and Anhui, followed by Beijing-Tianjin Plain, Shandong, Henan,
southern Shaanxi, parts of Northeast China, parts of Gansu, and northern Ningxia. We further provide response
suggestions for preventing and reducing hot extremes over China.