地球科学进展

地球科学进展 >

2025 , Vol. 40 >Issue 3: 221 - 227

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.016

青藏高原综合科学考察研究

亚洲水塔冰湖变化与冰湖溃决灾害风险及应对

  • 姚檀栋 ,
  • 张太刚 ,
  • 王伟财 ,
  • 张国庆 ,
  • 刘时银 ,
  • 安宝晟
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  • 1.中国科学院青藏高原研究所，北京 100101
    2.兰州大学 资源环境学院，甘肃 兰州 730000
    3.云南大学 国际河流与生态安全研究院，云南 昆明 650091
姚檀栋，中国科学院院士，主要从事冰川和环境变化研究. E-mail：tdyao@itpcas.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2024-12-25

  修回日期: 2025-01-22

  网络出版日期: 2025-05-07

基金资助

第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2024QZKK0400)

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Glacial Lake Change and Outburst Risk Assessment on the Asian Water Tower

  • Tandong YAO ,
  • Taigang ZHANG ,
  • Weicai WANG ,
  • Guoqing ZHANG ,
  • Shiyin LIU ,
  • Baosheng AN
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  • 1.Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2.College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    3.Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
YAO Tandong, Member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, research areas include glaciers and environmental change. E-mail: tdyao@itpcas.ac.cn

Received date: 2024-12-25

  Revised date: 2025-01-22

  Online published: 2025-05-07

Supported by

the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) Program(2024QZKK0400)

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摘要

青藏高原超常的气候变暖引起亚洲水塔失衡。亚洲水塔失衡伴随着冰川普遍退缩、冰崩以及冰湖溃决等冰冻圈灾害频发，进而冲毁公路、桥梁和村庄，对下游居民生命财产安全和社会经济发展造成严重影响。在第二次青藏高原综合科学考察中，通过实地考察、遥感监测和台站观测等手段，对亚洲水塔冰湖和冰湖溃决进行了广泛深入的研究。发现2020年时亚洲水塔共发育冰湖14 310个，面积1 148.3 km2，其中西藏自治区冰湖7 312个，面积642.6 km2。1990年以来，亚洲水塔冰湖数量和面积增长均超过20%。评估发现，亚洲水塔有1 256个极高危险和高危险冰湖，其中182个冰湖存在溃决的极高风险或高风险。喜马拉雅山东段和藏东南地区是当前亚洲水塔冰湖最为集中、扩张幅度最大、溃决洪水灾害最为严重的区域，也是溃决风险极高冰湖分布最多的区域，为冰湖研究和灾害防控的重点区域。在未来的冰湖研究和预警防控工作中，需要提高对冰湖溃决风险的精准识别，加强冰湖溃决监测预警体系建设，强化布局冰湖溃决洪水的次生灾害和跨境威胁的应对等。

关键词： 冰湖; 冰湖溃决洪水; 溃决风险评估; 监测预警; 亚洲水塔

本文引用格式

姚檀栋 , 张太刚 , 王伟财 , 张国庆 , 刘时银 , 安宝晟 . 亚洲水塔冰湖变化与冰湖溃决灾害风险及应对[J]. 地球科学进展, 2025 , 40(3) : 221 -227 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.016

Abstract

Abnormal atmospheric warming on the Tibetan Plateau has caused an imbalance in Asian Water Towers, leading to widespread and frequent cryospheric disasters such as ice avalanches and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). These events pose a significant threat to life and infrastructure downstream, impacting regional socioeconomic development. Our recent studies, conducted during the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program, utilized field observations, remote sensing, and modeling to examine glacial lakes and GLOFs on the Tibetan Plateau. As of 2020, we had identified 14 310 glacial lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, covering an area of 1 148.3 km2, along with a 20.4% increase in lake number and a 20.2% increase in lake area since 1990. Hazard and risk assessments revealed 1 256 glacial lakes with high or very high hazard levels, including 182 glacial lakes with high or very high-risk levels. These high-risk glacial lakes pose severe GLOF threats to communities and infrastructure downstream. At the regional scale, the eastern Himalayan and southeastern Tibetan regions exhibit the highest number of glacial lakes, the largest area expansion, the most destructive GLOF hazards, and the highest concentration of very high hazard level and very high-risk level glacial lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. In terms of administrative regions, Shigatse City, Nyingchi City, and Shannan City in the Tibet Autonomous Region have the highest distribution of very high-risk level glacial lakes. Future research should focus on precise GLOF assessments, the development of monitoring and early warning systems, and strategies for adapting to GLOF disaster chains and transboundary threats.

Key words： Glacial lake; Glacial lake outburst flood; Risk assessment of outburst; Monitoring and early warning; Asian Water Tower.

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