地球科学进展

地球科学进展 >

2023 , Vol. 38 >Issue 6: 619 - 630

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.031

研究论文

冰期指数法模拟北半球冰盖演化的不确定性研究

  • 张宇翱 ,
  • 张旭 ,
  • 昝金波 ,
  • 方小敏
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  • 1.中国科学院青藏高原研究所，北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学，北京 101408
张宇翱（1997-），男，江苏苏州人，硕士研究生，主要从事冰盖数值模拟研究. E-mail：zhangyuao20@itpcas.ac.cn
张旭（1986-），男，山东青州人，研究员，主要从事古气候变化机制模拟研究. E-mail：xu.zhang@itpcas.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2023-04-04

  修回日期: 2023-05-04

  网络出版日期: 2023-06-07

基金资助

中国科学院青促会优秀会员项目(Y202023);国家自然科学基金委“青藏高原地球系统”基础科学中心项目(41988101);国家科技专项“第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究”项目“高原风化剥蚀历史及气候环境效应”(2019QZKK0707)

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Investigating Uncertainty of Simulating Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Evolution by Glacial Index Method

  • Yuao ZHANG ,
  • Xu ZHANG ,
  • Jinbo ZAN ,
  • Xiaomin FANG
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  • 1.Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 101408, China
ZHANG Yuao (1997-), male, Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, Master student. Research area includes ice sheet dynamics and simulation. E-mail: zhangyuao20@itpcas.ac.cn
ZHANG Xu (1986-), male, Qingzhou City, Shandong Province, Professor. Research area includes paleoclimate dynamics and modeling. E-mail: xu.zhang@itpcas.ac.cn

Received date: 2023-04-04

  Revised date: 2023-05-04

  Online published: 2023-06-07

Supported by

the Outstanding Member Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences for Youth Promotion(Y202023);The Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System(Grant 41988101);The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research, Ministry of Science and Technology of China "Weathering and erosion history of Plateau and its climatic and environmental effects” Sub-Project of Project 7 “Plateau Growth and Evolution”(2019QZKK0707)

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摘要

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）显示，自20世纪起极地冰盖持续消融，全球海平面不断上升。目前对于地球冰盖未来的预测以及过去的演变历史尚不明确，而数值模拟能够提供一种有效的解决方案。在冰盖模拟研究中，冰期指数法可依据古气候代用指标将离散的气候强迫转化为连续的气候强迫，用于冰盖演变的瞬态模拟。基于该方法，利用2组（共6条）分别代表全球海平面和温度变化的代用指标，开展末次冰期旋回北半球冰盖的时空演变模拟研究，结果表明：①模拟的冰量演变特征受指数的变化趋势控制；②在指数变化特征（轨迹和变幅）相似时，千年尺度气候突变事件的存在会导致模拟的总冰量偏少；③在同一气候强迫下，不同指数模拟的最大冰盖范围受夏季0 ℃等温线的约束，同时指数的演变轨迹与变幅也会影响末次冰期盛冰期冰盖模拟的空间分布。因此，在利用冰期指数法开展冰盖瞬态模拟研究时，需根据关注的研究区域选取有代表性的指数并考虑古气候代用指标（即冰期指数）的不确定性对模拟结果的影响。

关键词： 冰盖模拟; 末次冰期旋回; 冰期指数法

本文引用格式

张宇翱 , 张旭 , 昝金波 , 方小敏 . 冰期指数法模拟北半球冰盖演化的不确定性研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2023 , 38(6) : 619 -630 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.031

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) stresses threat of the continuous melting of polar ice sheets and hence rising global sea levels on our socioeconomic and living environment. However, large uncertainty remains in future projections of Earth’s ice sheet, which might be reduced by improving our understanding of its evolution history and associated dynamics by ice-sheet modeling. Glacial index method is an effective approach to investigate transient ice sheet change by interpolating discrete climate forcing into continuous climate forcing based on paleoclimate proxies. This indicates the choice of paleoclimate proxy might be of crucial impact on simulated transient ice sheet change. Here we investigate this issue with a focus on the tempo-spatial evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet during the last glacial cycle using two sets (six in total) of proxies representing global sea level and temperature changes, respectively. Three key conclusions are summarized in the following. First, the characteristics of proxy trajectory have a significant influence on the simulated ice volume’s evolutionary characteristics. Second, the presence of millennial-scale abrupt climate change events in proxies lowers the simulated overall ice volume when tendency and amplitude of proxies are similar. Third, ice sheet extent is constrained by the summer 0 °C isotherm which is modulated by the tendency and amplitude of different proxies, even when subjected to the same Last Glacial Maximum climate forcing. Therefore, our results emphasize the need to carefully consider the characteristics of paleoclimate proxies when using the glacial index method for studying global ice sheet changes over time. Understanding the limitations and potential biases associated with the chosen proxies is crucial to avoid misinterpretation and overstatement of modeling results.

Key words： Ice sheet simulation; Last glacial cycle; Glacial index method

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