非线性最优扰动方法在热带气旋目标观测研究和外场试验中的应用

段晚锁; 秦晓昊

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2022.010

地球科学进展 >

2022 , Vol. 37 >Issue 2: 165 - 176

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2022.010

青促会之地球科学领域

非线性最优扰动方法在热带气旋目标观测研究和外场试验中的应用

段晚锁 ,
秦晓昊

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^1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室，北京 100029
^2.中国科学院大学海洋学院，北京 101408

段晚锁（1973-），男，山西阳城人，研究员，主要从事海气相互作用，以及台风、厄尔尼诺、印度洋偶极子等高影响天气、气候事件和海洋中尺度涡的可预报性、目标观测、资料同化和集合预报等研究. E-mail：duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn

秦晓昊（1983-），女，湖南湘潭人，副研究员，主要从事热带气旋的可预报性、目标观测、资料同化和集合预报等研究. E-mail： xhqin@lasg.iap.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2021-12-22

修回日期: 2022-01-19

网络出版日期: 2022-03-08

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目“台风目标观测研究”(2018YFC1506402);国家自然科学基金项目“非线性强迫奇异向量—集合预报方法及其在厄尔尼诺和台风可预报性研究中的应用”(41930971)

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Application of Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Methods in the Targeting Observations and Field Campaigns of Tropical Cyclones

Wansuo DUAN ,
Xiaohao QIN

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^1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics，Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100029，China
^2.College of Marine Science，University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 101408，China

DUAN Wansuo
DUAN Wansuo （1973-）, Yangcheng County, Shanxi Province, Professor. Research areas include air-sea interaction, as well as the predictability, targeting observation, data assimilation and ensemble forecasts of high-impact weather and climate events. E-mail: duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
QIN Xiaohao. Application of nonlinear optimal perturbation methods in the targeting observations and field campaigns of tropical cyclones［J］.

QIN Xiaohao （1983-）, female, Xiangtan City, Hunan Province, Associate professor. Research areas include the predictability, targeting observation, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones. E-mail: xhqin@lasg.iap.ac.cn

Received date: 2021-12-22

Revised date: 2022-01-19

Online published: 2022-03-08

Supported by

the National Key Research and Development Program "Targeting observation research on typhoons"(2018YFC1506402);The National Natural Science Foundation of China "The nonlinear forcing singular vector-ensemble forecast method and its application in the predictability study in El Ni?o and tropical cyclone"(41930971)

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摘要

综述了我国学者近年来用非线性最优扰动方法探索热带气旋目标观测及其外场试验的主要进展，具体包括：从提高数值模式初始场精度的角度，用条件非线性最优扰动方法确定了热带气旋路径和强度预报的目标观测敏感区，并成功应用于“风云四号”气象卫星和下投探空仪台风目标观测外场试验，助力业务部门获得了宝贵资料。从减小模式误差或外强迫不确定性的角度，将非线性强迫奇异向量方法应用于探讨热带气旋强度预报的敏感性，揭示了模式误差的敏感气象要素和敏感区，以及海表温度强迫的敏感区；用集合扰动的思路识别了热带气旋快速增强过程预报的行星边界层的模式误差敏感区。讨论了目前热带气旋目标观测研究存在的问题以及可能的解决方法，展望了未来热带气旋目标观测研究应努力的前沿方向，及其在实际预报中的应用前景。

关键词： 热带气旋; 目标观测; 非线性最优扰动; 资料同化; 集合预报

本文引用格式

段晚锁 , 秦晓昊 . 非线性最优扰动方法在热带气旋目标观测研究和外场试验中的应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2022 , 37(2) : 165 -176 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2022.010

Abstract

The authors review the major progresses in the targeting observations and field campaigns for Tropical Cyclones （TCs） using their proposed nonlinear optimal perturbation methods. They used condition nonlinear optimal perturbation， which aims at reducing the initial errors for numerical models， to identify the sensitive regions for TC track and intensity forecasts. This guides both FY-4 satellite and dropsonde in the field campaigns to effectively collect valuable observation data. Furthermore， they investigated the sensitivity of TC intensity forecast to model errors using nonlinear forcing singular vector， which indicates both the sensitive regions and variables in troposphere and the sensitive regions of sea surface temperature. Simultaneously， they also identified the sensitive regions and variables in the boundary layer during a rapid intensification process of a TC using ensemble perturbation method. In final the unresolved problems， possible solutions， and future recommendations in the targeting observations for TCs are discussed.

Key words： Tropical cyclones; Targeting observations; Nonlinear optimal perturbation; Ensemble forecast; Data assimilation

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