地球科学进展

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2020 , Vol. 35 >Issue 6: 618 - 631

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.051

全球变化研究

中国投资对“一带一路”地区经济增长和碳排放强度的影响

  • 李侠祥 ,
  • 刘昌新 ,
  • 王芳 ,
  • 郝志新
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  • 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
    2.中国科学院 大学，北京 100049
    3.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京 100190
李侠祥(1991-)，男，山东临沂人，博士研究生，主要从事气候变化研究. E-mail：lixx.18b@igsnrr.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2019-12-19

  修回日期: 2020-05-01

  网络出版日期: 2020-07-06

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目“地球系统模式与综合评估模型的双向耦合及应用”(2016YFA0602704);国家自然科学基金重点项目“中世纪暖期与小冰期中国东部年代际干湿格局差异及其机制研究”(41831174)

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The Impact of China’s Investment on Economic Growth and Carbon Emission Intensity in the “Belt and Road”

  • Xiaxiang Li ,
  • Changxin Liu ,
  • Fang Wang ,
  • Zhixin Hao
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  • 1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3.Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Li Xiaxiang (1991-), male, Linyi City, Shandong Province, Ph. D student. Research areas include climate change. E-mail:lixx.18b@igsnrr.ac.cn

Received date: 2019-12-19

  Revised date: 2020-05-01

  Online published: 2020-07-06

Supported by

the National Key Research and Development Program of China “Coupling and application of Earth system model and Integrated Assessment Model”(2016YFA0602704);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “A study on the difference and mechanism of the interdecadal dry and wet pattern between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age in eastern China”(41831174)

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摘要

增加绿色投资是促进“一带一路”地区实现可持续发展的重要途径之一。通过设计中国对“一带一路”地区无投资、固定投资和加强投资3个情景，利用改进的索罗模型和碳强度变化模型，计算并对比分析了“一带一路”地区7个区域国内生产总值和CO2排放量变化的差异。结果表明，中国投资有利于“一带一路”地区的经济发展和CO2减排，且随着投资的增加，促进作用也越明显。相对无投资情景，截至2100年，在固定、加强投资情景下，“一带一路”地区国内生产总值分别累计增加45.16万亿和97.02万亿美元，CO2累计排放量分别减少44.16 Gt和79.47 Gt，这将导致2100年全球大气CO2浓度下降2.41和4.33 mL/m3。从区域上看，虽然在短期内（2017—2050年），中国投资可能导致东南亚及周边地区、印度和中东欧的CO2排放量小幅增加，但长期（2017—2100年）结果显示，其对各区域CO2排放量下降均有促进作用，特别是对东南亚及周边地区和中东—中亚地区的减排促进作用最明显。这表明中国投资有利于促进“一带一路”地区的绿色可持续发展。

关键词： “一带一路”倡议; 碳减排; 绿色发展; 中国投资

本文引用格式

李侠祥 , 刘昌新 , 王芳 , 郝志新 . 中国投资对“一带一路”地区经济增长和碳排放强度的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020 , 35(6) : 618 -631 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.051

Abstract

Increasing green investment is one of the important ways to promote sustainable development in the Belt and Road (B&R) region. We predicted the effects of China’s investments on the CO2 emission patterns in B&R areas under the scenarios of No-Investment (NIS), Business-as-usual Investment (BIS) and the Strengthening Investment Scenario (SIS) based on the improved Solow model and a CO2 intensity model. The results reveal that the GDP of B&R region will cumulatively increase by 45.16 and 97.02 trillion USD, and the CO2 will cumulatively decrease by 44.16 and 79.47 Gt by 2100, respectively, under BIS and SIS, compared with NIS. The cumulative decrease of CO2 emissions, 44.16 and 79.47 Gt, will lead to global CO2 concentration decrease by approximately 2.41 mL/m3 and 4.33 mL/m3 in 2100, respectively. Regionally, China’s investments have the most obvious role in promoting the economic development and CO2 emission reductions of Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas. In the short term (2017-2050), China's investment may lead to a small increase in CO2 emissions in Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas, India and the Central and Eastern Europe, but in the long term (2017-2100), China's investment will promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in all regions, especially in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas and the Middle East Central Asia region. This shows that China's investment is conducive to promoting the green development of the B&R regions.

Key words： Belt and Road Initiative; CO2 emission reduction; Green development; Chinese investments

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