过去千年中国年代和百年尺度冷暖阶段的干湿格局变化研究
收稿日期: 2019-09-09
修回日期: 2019-12-15
网络出版日期: 2020-02-27
基金资助
国家重点研发计划项目“代用指标物理意义与数据挖掘及共享技术研究”(2017YFA0603301);国家自然科学基金项目“中世纪暖期与小冰期中国东部年代际干湿格局差异及其机制研究”(41831174)
An Overview on Changes of Dry/Wet Pattern in China in Decadal to Centennial Warm and Cold Periods During the Past Millennium
Received date: 2019-09-09
Revised date: 2019-12-15
Online published: 2020-02-27
Supported by
the National R&D Program of China "Studies on the physical explanations of proxy indicator and technology of data mining and sharing"(2017YFA0603301);The National Natural Science Foundation of China "Studies on the differences and mechanisms of the inter-decadal dry-wet patterns over eastern China during the medieval climate anomaly and the Little Ice Age"(41831174)
揭示过去千年旱涝格局的多尺度变化特征,是近年气候变化研究的一个“热点”问题,对理解、预估未来气候增暖背景下的降水变化时空差异具有重要价值。依据已发表文献,对过去千年中国冷暖与干湿格局变化的多尺度配置特征进行了总结梳理与对比分析。主要结论是:尽管在过去千年,不同冷暖阶段的中国干湿格局存在差异;但集合平均显示,无论年代还是百年尺度的温暖时段,中国东部干湿均大致呈自南向北的“旱(华南)—涝(长江中下游)—旱(黄淮地区)”分布格局;而在相对寒冷时段,则主要呈东湿西干的东西分异格局;气候由寒冷转为温暖可能会导致黄淮地区相对转干,江南地区(特别是湘、赣流域)相对转湿。这表明:在当前气候增暖背景下,中国东部自20世纪70年代以来发生的“南涝北旱”格局可能是过去千年温暖与干湿格局变化配置特征的重现。然而从更长尺度的阶段差异看,中世纪气候异常期中国干湿大致呈“西部干旱—半干旱区偏干、西南—华北—东北偏湿、东南又偏干”的特征,小冰期则反之。这既说明现有重建结果尚存在不确定性,也表明中国干湿格局对不同尺度冷暖变化配置的关系可能极为复杂。
郝志新 , 吴茂炜 , 张学珍 , 刘洋 , 郑景云 . 过去千年中国年代和百年尺度冷暖阶段的干湿格局变化研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020 , 35(1) : 18 -25 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.005
Revealing the multi-scale variation characteristics of the drought/flood patterns for the past millennium has been a hot spot in climate change research in recent years. It has significance for understanding and predicting the temporal and spatial differences of precipitation changes in the context of future climate warming. Based on publications on the peer-reviewed journals, here, we summarized and compared the combinations between cold/warm periods and dry/wet spatial patterns at multi-scales in China over the past millennium. The main conclusions are: although there are differences in China's dry/wet patterns in different cold and warm periods for the past millennium, the ensemble mean shows that the dry/wet patterns in eastern China in decadal or centennial warm periods are approximately "dry (South China)-wet (middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River)-dry (Huanghuai Area)" from south to north, while in the relatively cold periods it mainly shows a "wet in east and dry in west" pattern. The climate changes from cold to warm usually lead to a drying trend in the Huanghuai Area, and a wetting trend in the Jiangnan area (especially the Yangtze River basin in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces). This shows that the "flood in south and drought in north" pattern in eastern China since the 1970s under the background of global warming may be a re-occurrence of the matching characteristics of cold/warm climate and dry/wet patterns in China for the past millennium. However, from the perspective of the longer-scale cold and warm stages, the dry/wet pattern in China tend to be "dry in the arid and semi-arid areas in western China; wet in southwestern, northern, and northeastern China; and dry in southeastern China" in the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and an opposite pattern shows in the Little Ice Age. It suggests that there are still uncertainties in the current climate reconstructions, and it also shows that the mechanism of dry/wet pattern responding to multi-scale temperature fluctuations might be extremely complicated.
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