以太子河流域为研究区域，采用HBV水文模型对流域的水文过程进行模拟，并选取RegCM4.4区域气候模式输出的平均气温和降水数据来驱动HBV水文模型，模拟逐日径流过程，分析RCP4.5排放情景下未来太子河流域径流的演变。结果表明，HBV水文模型在太子河流域模拟效果较好，率定期与验证期Nash效率系数与确定性系数均在0.60以上，模型基本模拟出了洪水对降水的响应过程。RCP4.5情景下，2021—2070年太子河流域年平均气温呈持续升温趋势，流域降水和年径流深度呈微弱减少趋势。相较于基准期，年径流深度将增多9.79%，夏季和秋季径流深度上升明显。径流分位数的变化表明，峰值极端径流和枯水极端径流均较基准期有不同程度的增多，未来太子河流域发生极端洪涝的可能性较高。

Taking the Taizihe River Basin located in Liaoning Province as a study area, we applied HBV hydrological model to simulate the hydrological process of this river basin with the support of observed daily precipitation, mean temperature, hydrological data in Xiaolinzi hydrologic station, and global digital elevation model data from SRTM3, land utilization types, etc. According to the simulation results of daily runoff, the possible impact of future climate change on runoff was analyzed through forcing HBV model by RegCM4.4 dynamic downscaled climatic data. The results show that HBV model performed generally well for daily simulation of the Taizihe River Basin with Nash Sutcliffe coefficient and deterministic coefficient being all over 0.60 in the calibration period and validation period, and the response of flooding to precipitation were simulated better. This indicates the HBV model can be successfully applied to the Taizihe River Basin. Mean temperature will increase obviously with persistent rising trend by RegCM4.4 model in 2021-2070 under RCP4.5 scenario. Annual precipitation and runoff depth are expected to reduce a bit. Compared with the baseline period (1986-2005), annual runoff depth will increase by 9.79%. At the same time, the runoff depth will increase significantly in summer and autumn. The variation of runoff quantile indicates that both peak extreme runoff and dry extreme runoff will increase to different degrees than that in the baseline period. In the future, the Taizihe River Basin will be likely to experience extreme flooding.