基于Budyko理论分析珠江流域中上游地区气候与植被变化对径流的影响*

李天生; 夏军

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.12.1248

地球科学进展 >

2018 , Vol. 33 >Issue 12: 1248 - 1258

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.12.1248

研究论文

基于Budyko理论分析珠江流域中上游地区气候与植被变化对径流的影响^*

李天生 ,
夏军

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1.武汉大学水资源与水电工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉 430072
2.武汉大学水安全研究院,湖北武汉 430072

作者简介:李天生(1994-),男,甘肃白银人,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究.E-mail:2012301580244@whu.edu.cn

*通信作者:夏军(1954-),男,湖北孝感人,教授,中国科学院院士,主要从事水文学及水资源研究.E-mail:xiajun666@whu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2018-06-24

网络出版日期: 2019-01-18

基金资助

*国家自然科学基金项目“中小河流及无测站流域径流形成非线性机理及其模型的应用基础研究”(编号:41571028)资助.

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Analysis of the Influence of Climate and Vegetation Change on Runoff in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Pearl River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis^*

Tiansheng Li ,
Jun Xia

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1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072,China
2.The Research Institute for Water Security,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China

First author:Li Tiansheng(1994-),male,Baiyin City,Gansu Province,Ph.D student. Research areas include water resource and hydrology. E-mail:2012301580244@whu.edu.cn

*Corresponding author:Xia Jun(1954-),male,Xiaogan City,Hubei Province,Professor, Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences. Research areas include water resource and hydrology. E-mail:xiajun666@whu.edu.cn

Received date: 2018-06-24

Online published: 2019-01-18

Supported by

Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Study on the nonlinear mechanism of runoff formation in medium and small watersheds and non-station basins and the application of models" (No. 41571028).

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地球科学进展编辑部, 2018,

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摘要

径流作为水文循环的关键环节,在人类活动影响较小的地区受气候因素控制的同时,也受植被等陆面要素的影响。以珠江流域中上游地区为研究区域,基于Budyko理论具体分析了气候和植被变化对该区域径流的影响。首先应用TFPW-MK方法分析了1981—2013年研究区各要素的变化趋势;其次通过逐步回归拟合参数n,改进了Budyko理论框架下的傅抱璞公式,并基于改进的蒸散发模型模拟计算了区域蒸散发和径流;最后基于敏感性分析方法,分析了区域径流对气象要素和植被要素的敏感性。结果显示:1981—2013年珠江中上游地区平均温度(T)、最高温度(T_max)和最低温度(T_min)都存在上升趋势,而径流(Q)、降雨(P)、风速(u₂)、相对湿度(RH)呈下降趋势。傅抱璞实际蒸散发计算公式中参数n同时受气候要素P、T、RH、日照时数(S)、u₂和植被覆盖指数(NDVI)的制约。敏感性分析结果显示,流域径流对降雨和NDVI具有较高的敏感性,且流域降雨减少是径流减少的主导因素,而NDVI在研究时段没有显著的变化趋势,其对径流减少的贡献不显著。总体而言,气候变化对研究区域径流的影响主要是通过同时改变水文输入要素(降雨、潜在蒸散发)和表针流域特性的参数n来表现,而植被对研究区域径流的影响主要是通过改变表针流域特性的参数n来表现。

关键词： 径流; 气候与植被变化; 水量平衡; Budyko理论; 珠江中上游

本文引用格式

李天生 , 夏军 . 基于Budyko理论分析珠江流域中上游地区气候与植被变化对径流的影响^*[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018 , 33(12) : 1248 -1258 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.12.1248

Abstract

Runoff, which is a key component in the hydrological cycle, is mainly controlled by climate factors and land-surface elements in non-humid regions. The impacts of climate and vegetation changes on runoff based on Budyko hypothesis in the middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin was analyzed in this article. First, the temporal trend of variables in the study area during 1981-2013 was examined by using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening. Second, the relationship of the parameter n in Fu's equation with factors of climate and vegetation coverage was built to reveal the time-variation process of n. Finally, the effects of climatic factors and vegetation coverage on runoff were assessed by analyzing the sensitivity of runoff to each variable. It is found that average temperature (T), maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) in the study area present an increasing trend while runoff (Q), precipitation (P), wind speed (u₂) and relative humid (RH) present decreasing trend. The parameter n in Fu's equation is significantly related to both climatic factors (including precipitation (P), average temperature (T), relative humid (RH), sunshine duration (S), wind speed (u₂)) and vegetation coverage index (NDVI). In terms of sensitivity of Runoff (Q) to the variation of each climatic factors and NDVI in the middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin, precipitation (P) and NDVI have the highest sensitivity, followed by other climatic factors. Additionally, the precipitation (P) reduction is the main driving factor to the decline in runoff, while vegetation coverage is another important factor. In general, climate change affects runoff not only by changing the hydrological inputs (precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (PET) but also by altering the watershed characteristics as represented by the parameter n, while the impacts of vegetation coverage on runoff are exerted mainly through the alteration of the watershed characteristics.

Key words： Runoff; The change of climate and vegetation; Water balance; Budyko theory; Middle and upper reaches of Pearl River.

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