气候变化是目前备受国际社会广泛关注的研究热点之一。为了更好地了解国际气候变化科学领域的发展态势和研究现状,以SCI和SSCI数据库为数据源,基于气候变化相关关键词,采集1900年以来相关文献150 834篇,通过对100多年来相关科学文献进行数据统计与分析,揭示了气候变化研究的发展历程、研究主题及热点的发展与演变。研究结果显示:①气候变化研究发端始于19世纪末20世纪初,1986年之后相关研究文献数量迅速增长;②一系列国际组织和政府间机构主导的国际计划对推动气候变化研究的快速发展作出了关键性的贡献;③美国和英国一直是气候变化研究的核心国家;④近10年来,中国论文所占比重迅速上升,科研合作强度、合作广度不断扩大;⑤国际气候变化研究热点转换迅速,当前研究热点主要集中在气候模型/模式、气候模拟、气候政策、气候敏感性、气候变化影响、气候变化适应、气候变化速度和气候变化减缓等方面。

Climate change is one of the most active research fields currently, which has attracted extensive attention from the international community. In order to better understand the development situation and research status of international climate change science, in this paper we took the SSCI and SCI databases as data sources, collected the relevant literatures since 1900 based on the key words related to climate change, and made some statistics and analysis of the literatures of the past one hundred years to reveal the development process of climate change research as well as the development and evolution of its research topics and hot spots. The results showed that the climate change research began in the late 18 th century and early 19 th century, and the academic debate about global warming and global cooling started in the early 1970s. The international programs and projects led by a range of international organizations and intergovernmental bodies have contributed significantly to the rapid development of climate change research. The United States and the United Kingdom have long been the core countries of climate change research. The proportion of Chinese papers has risen rapidly in the last decade. The intensity and scope of scientific research cooperation are constantly expanding. Current research focuses on climate model/modeling, climate simulation, climate policy, climate sensitivity, climate change impacts, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, and rate of climate change.