作者简介:黄勋(1986-),男,四川广元人,博士,主要从事地质灾害评价与预测研究.E-mail:huangsun198671@163.com
收稿日期: 2016-07-02
修回日期: 2016-09-15
网络出版日期: 2016-10-20
基金资助
重庆市社会民生科技创新专项项目“水文地质三维建模技术在越岭隧道规划建设中的应用研究”(编号:cstc2016shmszx30021);国家科技支撑技术项目“地震扰动区重大滑坡泥石流等地质灾害防范与生态修复”(编号:2011BAK12B01)资助
版权
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation
First author:Huang Xun(1986-), male, Guangyuan City, Sichuan Province, Ph. D. Research areas include the assessment and prediction of the geologic hazard.E-mail:huangxun198671@163.com
*Corresponding author:Tang Chuan(1961-), male, Hefei City, Anhui Province, Professor. Research areas include the geologic hazard, geomorphology and engineering geology.E-mail:tangc707@gmail.com
Received date: 2016-07-02
Revised date: 2016-09-15
Online published: 2016-10-20
Supported by
Project supported by the Special Program for Social Technology Innovation of Chongqing “Application of 3D hydrogeological modeling method on the planning and construction of the long tunnel”(No;cstc2016shmszx30021);National Science and Technology Support Program “Geohazard prevention and geoenvironment protection in the meizoseismal area”(No.2011BAK12B01)
Copyright
风险评价是灾害防治最有效的软措施之一,也是实现灾害风险管控的重要基础。针对承灾体类型和泥石流成灾方式的特殊性,以重要承灾体——建筑物和道路为研究对象,构建了一套适用于我国西南山地城镇的泥石流定量风险评价的理论体系和技术流程,主要分为3个步骤:①利用FLO-2D数值模型,以强度指数IDF表达泥石流危险性;②利用汶川七盘沟7·11泥石流灾损数据,构建基于超越损失概率的物质易损性曲线;③在建立承灾体数据库的基础上,通过设置不同的未来泥石流情境,实现承灾体预期损失的定量表达。以汶川羊岭沟为例的模型验证和案例运用表明,构建的泥石流定量风险评价体系,能够很好地反映承灾体与泥石流的响应机制,可为泥石流威胁区的防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。
黄勋 , 唐川 . 基于数值模拟的泥石流灾害定量风险评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016 , 31(10) : 1047 -1055 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.1047
The risk assessment is not only the one of the most effective soft measures in natural hazard prevention, but also is the base of hazard risk management. On account of the specificity of various elements at risk and debris flow mechanism, the theoretical system and technical procedure of debris flow quantitative risk assessment for buildings and roads were established in the mountaineous area of Southwest China, which included three sections: ①To represent debris flow hazard quantitatively using the intensity index IDF through FLO-2D simulation; ②To build debris flow physical vulnerability curve based on the loss exceedance-probability from Qipan gully debris flow case; ③To quantify the expected loss of the important elements at risk based on their database after setting the future debris flow scenarios. The case study of Yangling catchment indicated that the responding mechanism between elements at risk and debris flow physical mechanism was described quantitatively by this quantitative risk assessment system, which can contribute to the construction planning and prevention measure making in the southwestern mountainous area.
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