收稿日期: 2003-02-16
修回日期: 2003-06-21
网络出版日期: 2004-02-01
基金资助
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“东、黄海生态系统动力学和生物资源可持续利用”（编号：G19990437）；国际合作重点计划“中国近海典型海域入海物质水文地球化学过程与环境效应”（编号：2001CB711004）资助
ANALYSIS OF THE COMPLEXITY AND THE RESEARCH METHODS OF THE MARINE ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS PREDICTION
Received date: 2003-02-16
Revised date: 2003-06-21
Online published: 2004-02-01
张志南 , 吴增茂 , 谢红琴 , 万小芳 . 海洋生态预报的复杂性与研究方法的讨论[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004 , 19(1) : 81 -086 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.01.0081
Dynamic prediction research on marine ecosystem has become one hot issue in marine science and even to geosystem sciences. The complexity and uncertainty of marine ecosystem dynamic prediction and the deficiency of field survey are deeply analysed. Several proposals are presented in this paper, by the aid of some analysis methods of numerical weather prediction, in order to promote the development of marine ecosystem dynamic prediction study: (1) to deeply understand the nonlinear dynamical characteristics of marine ecosystem and to develop stochasticdynamical model; (2) to strengthen ensemble and synthesized prediction study for marine ecosystem; (3) to make full use of satellitic remote sensing data and pay more attention to data assimilation study and application study of inverse problem for the marine ecosystem dynamics.
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