收稿日期: 2014-11-16
修回日期: 2014-12-02
网络出版日期: 2014-12-20
基金资助
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策”（编号：2014CB954300）资助
Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change
Received date: 2014-11-16
Revised date: 2014-12-02
Online published: 2014-12-20
Supported by
; 感谢林海研究员、方精云研究员、傅伯杰研究员、刘纪远研究员和史培军教授等的专业性和建设性的意见。感谢毛齐正、赵媛媛和刘志锋,以及其他参与该项目的研究人员和研究生所做出的贡献。
全球气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化已经导致许多地区水资源短缺、生态系统服务退化和巨灾风险增加等一系列生态环境问题。如何有效地应对气候变化风险,促进全球和区域的可持续发展,是当前全球变化研究中的一个重要论题。国家重点基础研究发展计划项目 “全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策(2014CB954300)”以可持续性科学为主要依据,以有序人类活动理念为指导思想,以实地观测、模型模拟和情景分析为主要手段,揭示气候变化和人类活动的定量关系,评估气候变化条件下人类活动对区域生态系统服务和人类福祉的影响,建立气候变化—有序人类活动—区域可持续发展耦合模型,提出景观及区域尺度上人类适应全球变化的综合策略。该研究项目将有助于发展和完善景观可持续性科学,促进我国半干旱地区主动适应全球气候变化的土地系统设计的理论和实践。
邬建国 , 张庆云 , 于德永 , 黄甘霖 , 黄庆旭 , 何春阳 . 全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014 , 29(12) : 1315 -1324 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.12.1315
Climate change and land use/land cover change have resulted in water shortage, degraded ecosystem services, and increased disaster risks across the world. Developing strategies and measures for achieving regional and global sustainability in the face of these environmental problems is a key topic of current climate change research. This paper provides an overview of the 973 project, entitled “Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change”, including its background, relative progresses, key scientific questions, major research elements, methodology, and expected outcomes. The proposed research is based on sustainability science, guided by the idea of Orderly Human Activities (OHA), and implemented through an integrated methodology of combining field observations, simulation experiments, and scenario analysis. The main objectives of the project are: to quantify the relationship between human activities and climate change, to assess the impacts of human activities on ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the face of climate change, and to develop an integrated model of climate change, OHA, and regional sustainable development. The ultimate goal is to provide a landscape/regional-scale strategy for sustainable development in the face of climate change. The project is expected to help advance the science and application of landscape sustainability science and land system design, particularly in terms of linking climate change, ecosystem services, and human well-being in the dry land region of China.
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