讨论了区域自然灾害风险的含义,指出了保险与灾害研究中对风险含义的不同理解,着重说明可能性风险概念。综述了区域灾害风险分析的内容及区域灾害风险估算的数学模型,指出风险分析可归结为风险辨识、风险估算、风险评价三个环节,风险估算数学模型的演进可概括为极值风险模型、概率风险模型、可能性风险模型三个阶段,着重介绍区域自然灾害风险分析的可能性风险模型。最后强调指出,为了提高区域自然灾害风险分析的可靠性,应加强区域自然灾害孕育与发生机制、区域自然灾害风险辨识方法、区域脆弱性分析方法的研究。

In this paper, the author first discusses the meaning of regional natural disaster' s risk and introduces the possibility risk in detail, pointing out that risk has different meaning in insurance business and disaster study. Then the author reviews the content of risk analysis of regional natural disasters and the mathematical models of risk assessment. The risk analysis is classified into three steps, risk recognition , risk estimation, and risk assessment and the mathematical models into three types, extreme risk model, probability risk model and possibility risk model. Nextly, the possibility risk model for analyzing regional disaster risk are reviewed thoroughly. Finally, the problems to be studied further for regional natural disasters risk analysis , the regional natural disaster mechanism , the method for recognizing regional natural disaster risk, and the method of regional vulnerability analysis, are proposed.