收稿日期: 1998-05-04
修回日期: 1998-12-15
网络出版日期: 1999-06-01
ADVANCE IN RISK ANALYSIS FOR REGIONAL NATURAL DISASTERS
Received date: 1998-05-04
Revised date: 1998-12-15
Online published: 1999-06-01
任鲁川 . 区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 1999 , 14(3) : 242 -246 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.1999.03.0242
In this paper, the author first discusses the meaning of regional natural disaster' s risk and introduces the possibility risk in detail, pointing out that risk has different meaning in insurance business and disaster study. Then the author reviews the content of risk analysis of regional natural disasters and the mathematical models of risk assessment. The risk analysis is classified into three steps, risk recognition , risk estimation, and risk assessment and the mathematical models into three types, extreme risk model, probability risk model and possibility risk model. Nextly, the possibility risk model for analyzing regional disaster risk are reviewed thoroughly. Finally, the problems to be studied further for regional natural disasters risk analysis , the regional natural disaster mechanism , the method for recognizing regional natural disaster risk, and the method of regional vulnerability analysis, are proposed.
Key words: Regional natural disaster; Risk analysis; Mathematical models.
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