收稿日期: 2003-02-09
修回日期: 2003-02-20
网络出版日期: 2003-04-01
基金资助
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目“长江中下游洪水孕灾环境变化、致灾机理与减灾对策”（编号：KZCX3-SW-331）; 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所知识创新工程所长专项基金“2050年前长江灾害性洪水趋势与致灾环境演化预研究”（编号：SS220007)资助.
GLOBAL CLIMATIC WARMING, THE YANGTZE FLOODS AND POTENTIAL LOSS
Received date: 2003-02-09
Revised date: 2003-02-20
Online published: 2003-04-01
全球大幅度变暖，使得水循环加快，蒸发和降水增强。长江中下游地区在20世纪90年代已呈现出明显增温趋势，达到 0．2～0．8℃，最大增温区域在长江三角洲地区。降水在长江流域中下游地区增加明显，增加值为5％～20％。20世纪90年代是继50年代后，长江流域性洪水灾害高发的10年。长江流域是我国经济发展的核心地区，对长江流域725个县洪水灾害脆弱性分析结果表明，近 1／3的地区是洪水灾害高脆弱性地区。按照1998年社会经济状况，若遭遇1954年型、1991年型、1996年型和1998年型的洪水时，洪水灾害造成的可能损失分别为589、55、70和196亿美元。气候模拟预测表明，21世纪长江流域地区的增温可能达到 2．7℃，导致降水可能增加 10％，径流可能增加37％。在全球变暖的趋势，以及区域社会经济可持续发展造成不透水面积增大和单位经济价值升高的共同影响下，长江流域发生相当于1870年、1954年和1998的千年、百年和20年一遇洪水的可能性增大，甚至可能发生超过上述频率的特大洪水。
施雅风 , 姜彤 . 全球变暖、长江水灾与可能损失[J]. 地球科学进展, 2003 , 18(2) : 277 -284 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2003.02.0277
A rapid, high-amplitude global climatic warming would speed global water cycle and strengthen rainfall and evaporation. Mean temperature in 1990s increases 0.2~0.8℃ comparing on the temperature between 1951 and 1980. High temperature increases in the Yangtze Delta. Annual precipitation increases more that 5%~20% in 1990s than the value between 1951 and 1980. At the Yangtze river catchment 5 heavy floods were happened in the 1990s. As the Yangtze river catchment plays an important role in the economic development in China, potential loss to floods increase very quickly. Based on the value of production in 1998, potential losses will be 58 900, 5 500, 7 000 and 19 600 million US dollar if the 1954, 1991, 1996 and 1998 floods would be happened. Based on regional climate model developed from National Climate Centre, increase of greenhouse gases like CO2 will lead to increase of about 2.7℃ of annual mean temperature in the Yangtze river catchment, it is projected to estimate the increase of 10% precipitation and 37% runoff. It is conclusion that the possibility of heavy floods like the types of 1998, 1954 and 1870 would happen in future as the impact of climatic warming and increasing urbanized area due to fast economic development.
Key words： Global warming; Floods;Vulnerability; Potential loss; Yangtze.
[1] Sha Wanying, Shao Xuemei, Huang Mei. Climate Warming in China since 1980s and its impact on natural regional boundary[J]. Science in China (D), 2002, 32(4):317-326.[沙万英, 邵学梅, 黄枚. 20世纪80年代以来中国的气候变暖及其对自然区域界线的影响[J]. 中国科学:D辑, 2002, 32(4): 317-326.]
[2] Arnell N W. Climate change and global water resources[J]. Global Environmental Change, 1999, 9: 531-549.
[3] Gao X J, Zhao Z C, Ding Y H, et al. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model[J]. Advance in Atmosphere Sciences, 2001, 6:1 224-1 230.
[4] IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of Working Group I Report[M]. Cambridge , UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[5] Wang Shaowu. Advances in Modern Climatology [M]. Beijing: Meteorological Publishing, 2001.1-305. [王绍武. 现代气候学研究进展[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2001.1-305. ]
[6] Dong Anxiang, Feng Song, Zhang CunJie. North-South Migration of Rain Belt over the Eastern China in the Past 500 Year[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2002, 60 (3): 378-381. [董安祥, 冯松, 张存杰. 500年中国东部雨带的南北摆动[J]. 气象学报, 2002, 60(3): 378-381. ]
[7] Miller J R, Russe G L. The impact of global warming on river runoff [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1992, 97 (D3):1-10.
[8] Bengtsm L. 人为气候变化的数值模拟[J]. AMBIO (中文版), 1997, 26(11): 58-65.
[9] King L, Metzler M, Jiang T. Flood Risks and Land Use Conflicts in the Yangtze Catchment, China and at the Rhine River, Germany, —Strategies for a Sustainable Flood Management[C]. Germany:Peter Lang Europaischer Verlag der Wissenschaften, 2001. 1-239.
[10] Ye Duzheng, Huang Ronghui. Flood/Drought Trends and Mechanism in the Huanghe and the Yangtze River Catchments[M]. Jinan: Shangdong Scientific and Technological Publishing House, 1996. 1-387. [叶笃正, 黄荣辉. 黄河长江流域旱涝规律和成因研究[M]. 济南:山东科学技术出版社,1996.1-387.]
[11] IPCC. Climate Change: The Scientific Assessment[M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press,1990.
[12] IPCC. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment 1992[M]. Cambridge , UK: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
[13] IPCC. Climate Change 1995:The Science of Climate Change[M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 1996.
[14] Hydrological Bureau of ChangJiang Water Resources Commission. Flood in 1998 and Hydrological Monitoring and Forecasting [M]. Beijing: Hydraulic and Hydropower Publishing House, 2000. 1-200. [长江水利委员会水文局.1998年长江洪水及水文监测预报[M]. 北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000. 1-200. ]
[15] ChangJiang Water Resources Commission. Floods and Droughts in the Yangtze River catchment[M]. Beijing: Hydraulic and Hydropower Publishing House, 2002. 1-326.[长江水利委员会. 长江流域水旱灾害[M].北京:中国水利电力出版社,2002.1 -326. ]
[16] Ning Maijin, Zhou Beida. Analysis of floods in Hunan province in 1990s and hazard mitigation[J]. Hydrology, 2002, 22(2):47 -50. [宁迈进,周北达.20世纪90年代湖南省洪灾原因分析及减灾对策[J].水文, 2002,22（2）：47 -50. ]
[17] Tao Shiyan, Ni Keqi, Zhao Sixiong, et al. Mechanism of Summer Rain Storm in China and its Forecasting[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Publishing, 2001.1 -184. [陶诗言,倪克琪,赵思雄,等. 1998夏季中国暴雨的形成机理与预报研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.1 -184. ]
[18] Wang Dongguan, Xie Qiang, Du Yan, et al. Warming Events in the south China sea during 1997 -1998[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2002, 47(9): 711 -716.[王东关,谢强,杜岩,等. 1997—1998年南海暖事件[J]. 科学通报,2002, 47（9）：711 -716. ]
[19] Wikinson C,Cinden O, Cesar H, et al. Ecological and socio-economic impact of 1998 coral mortality in the Indian Ocean: An Enso impact and a warming of future change[J]. AMBIO, 1999, 28(2):188 -196.
[20] Jiang Tong. Analysis of Flood Hazards in the Yangtze River Valley and Strategies for Sustainable Flood Risk Management[M]. Germany: Shaker Verlag, 2000.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
甘公网安备62010202000687
