收稿日期: 2006-09-18
修回日期: 2007-01-31
网络出版日期: 2007-04-10
基金资助
国家科技支撑计划项目“灾害天气精细数值预报系统及短期气候集合预测研究”第四课题“短期气候集合预测技术”（编号：2006BAC02B04）；国家自然科学基金项目“延伸预报中减少模式不确定性的动力相似集合方法”（编号：40675039）和“跨季度预报的相似—动力方法研究”（编号：40575036）资助.
Study Progress in Prediction Strategy and Methodology on Numerical Model
任宏利 , 丑纪范 . 数值模式的预报策略和方法研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2007 , 22(4) : 376 -385 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.04.0376
At present, numerical prediction has been a primary technique for objective forecast after half a century's development. Under the circumstance of model and data given, the improvement of predictive level is to great extent dependent on the prediction strategy and method that are employed. In the present paper, the study progress in prediction strategy and methodology on numerical model in the world, which primarily includes the correction of prediction errors, ensemble prediction techniques and so on, has been comprehensively reviewed. It is suggested that there exist a feasible approach to improving predictive level based on prediction strategy by combining statistical and dynamical methods together and extracting information from historical data. Moreover, on the basis of summarizing previous work, the studies on the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction developed in recent years are also introduced, especially including situations of prediction experiments in complex operational model.
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