基于通量模型的珠江三角洲经济区土壤重金属地球化学累积预测预警研究

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.10.1115

地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.10.1115

周永章 ^1,4,5，沈文杰 ^1,4,5, 李勇 ^1,4,5，窦磊 ^2,4，李文胜 ²，赖启宏 ^2,3，杜海燕 ²，钟莉莉 ^1,5，梁婷 ^1,5

1.中山大学地球科学系，广东广州 510275；
2.广东省地质调查院，广东广州 510080；

3.广东省佛山地质局，广东佛山 528000；

4.中山大学地球环境与地球资源研究中心，广东广州 510275；

5.广东省地质过程与矿产资源探查重点实验室，广东广州 510275)

收稿日期:2012-07-28 修回日期:2012-09-17 出版日期:2012-10-10
基金资助:
国土资源部农业地质与生态地球化学调查项目“广东省珠江三角洲经济区农业地质与生态地球化学调查”（编号：基[2005]01116）;广东省自然科学基金研究团队项目“矿山污染生态修复理论与技术研究”（编号：06202438）资助.

A Study of Prediction and EarlyWarning Forecast on Geochemical Accumulation of Soil Heavy Metals Based on Flux Model in Pearl River Delta Economic Zone (China)

Zhou Yongzhang ^1,4,5，Shen Wenjie ^1,4,5,Li Yong ^1,4,5，Dou Lei ^2,4，Li Wensheng ²，Lai Qihong ^2,3，Du Haiyan ²，Zhong Lili ^1,5，Liang Ting ^1,5

1.Department of Earth Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University，Guangzhou 510275，China；
2.Guangdong Geological Survey，Guangzhou 510080，China；3. Foshan Bureau of Geology，Foshan 528000，China；
4.Research Center for Earth Environment and Resources，Guangzhou 510080，China；
5.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Mineral Resource & Geological Processes (GDMine), Guangzhou 510275, China

Received:2012-07-28 Revised:2012-09-17 Online:2012-10-10 Published:2012-10-10

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珠江三角洲经济区是中国最富庶的地区之一，人类生产、生活活动对环境影响突出。在区域尺度，基于普遍性、区域性输入—输出因素通量模型，估算了不同土地利用方式下土壤重金属的年净通量，进而开展土壤重金属地球化学环境预测预警。预警主要通过由土壤重金属空间分布与其概率空间分布相结合的概率克里金法模型获得的因子污染概率进行。预警因子浓度阈值取自土壤环境质量国标标准二级标准。分析显示，研究区水田土壤的生态地球化学环境重警因素主要来自Cd，Hg，Ni，Cr，旱地土壤重警因素主要来自Cd，Hg，Ni，园地土壤重警因素主要来自As，Cr和Ni。如果不改变现在的发展方式，到2025年，水田土壤生态地球化学环境重警区域有江门市的蓬江区、江海区、新会区、开平市、鹤山市，整个中山市，广州的南沙区、番禺区，肇庆市的鼎湖区、端州区、高要市，以及珠海的斗门区。旱地重警区域主要为广州的番禺、南沙，白云区、黄埔区、罗岗区及花都区，佛山的高明、南海、顺德、禅城区，肇庆的四会，中山的小揽、古镇、三角、东升，珠海的斗门、金湾等，以及江门的市区、新会市、开平市和台山市。园地重警区域有广州的南沙、番禺区、花都区，惠州惠东县的北部等，珠海的斗门、金湾和坦洲，佛山的顺德区、南海区、禅城区、三水区等地。

关键词: 珠江三角洲经济区, 区域性输入—输出因素通量模型, 土壤重金属;概率克里金法, 地球化学环境预测预警

The Pearl River Delta Economic Zone (PRDEZ) is one of the most developed areas economically and socially in China, and its ecogeochemical environment is heavily affected by human activities. In this paper, net flux of soil heavy metals is estimated on regional inputoutput flux model, and then prediction and earlywarning forecast on geochemical accumulation of soil heavy metals is carried out. Early warning forecast is conducted by the factor pollution index obtained from the Probability Kriging model which integrates the space distribution and probability distribution of soil heavy metals. The concentration threshold for warning factor is taken from the China National Environmental Quality Standards for the levelII soil. It is shown that Cd, Hg, Ni and Cr are the main ecogeochemical warning factors for the paddy land soil, Cd, Hg and Ni factors for the dry land, and As, Cr and Ni for the garden land. With the present development model going until the year of 2025, the heavily warning regions of paddy land soil will extend to the Pengjiang District, Jianghai District and Xinhui District in Jiangmen City, Kaiping, Heshang, Zhongshan, Nansha Districts, Panyu District in Guangzhou City, Dinghu District, Duanzhou District and Gaoyao District in Zhaoqing City, and Doumen District in Zhuhai City. The heavily warning regions of dry land soil will extend to Panyu District, Nansha District, Baiyun District, Huangpu District, Luogang District and Huadu District in Gangzhou City, Gaoming District, Nanhai District, Shunde District and Shancheng District in Foshan City, Sihui District in Zhaoqing City, Xiaolan District, Guzhen District, Sanjiao District and Dongshen District in Zhongshan City, Doumen District and Jinwandeng District in Zhuhai City, and Xinhui, Kaiping and Taishan in Jiangmen City. The heavily warning regions of garden land soil will extend to Nansha District, Panyu District and Huadu District in Guangzhou City, the northern Huidong County in Huizhou City, Doumen District, Jinwan District and Tanzhou District in Zhuhai City, and Shunde District, Nanhai District, Shancheng District and Sanshui District in Foshan City.

Key words: Regional input-output flux model, Soil heavy metals, Probability Kriging model, Eco-geochemically Early Warning Forecast, Pearl River Delta Economic Zone.

中图分类号:

X131.3

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