地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2026.061   cstr: 32269.14.adearth.CN62-1091/P.2026.061

   

从关联到因果:因果推断在气候归因研究中的进展、挑战与前瞻
常欢1,2,方苗1,2*   
  1. (1. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,冰冻圈科学与冻土工程全国重点实验室,兰州 730000;2. 中国科学院大学,北京 101408)
  • 基金资助:
    科技部国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2022YFF0801102);中国科学院“西部之光”项目(A类)资助.

From Correlation to Causation: Advances, Challenges and Prospects of Causal Inference in Climate Attribution Research

Chang Huan1, 2, Fang Miao1, 2   

  1. (1.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China)
  • About author:Huan Chang. Research areas include causal inference approaches in climate attribution. E-mail: changhuan@nieer.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant no. 2022YFF0801102) and the CAS “Light of West China” Program.
气候归因旨在识别并量化气候变化及极端事件背后的驱动因素,是理解气候系统演变机制、评估人类活动影响以及进行气候适应与减缓政策的研究基础。回归分析、相关分析和最优指纹法等传统方法,在识别人为强迫对全球及区域气候变化贡献方面已形成较为成熟的理论与方法体系。然而,气候系统具有明显的高度非线性、多尺度耦合、时滞性及多因子共同驱动等复杂特征,仅依赖传统手段难以有效揭示变量间的方向性与传递路径。近年来,以格兰杰因果、转移熵、图模型、收敛交叉映射、反事实推断等为代表的因果推断方法逐步引入地球科学,为气候归因从“信号检测”迈向“机制解释”提供了新的方法论支撑。需要指出的是,不同方法所对应的“因果”的含义并不一致:格兰杰因果主要反映预测增益,图模型依据条件独立关系识别候选因果结构,而反事实方法关注干预或不同情景下结果的变化。因此,不同方法回答的是不同层次的因果问题,其结果不能简单相互替代。在梳理经典气候归因及其局限的基础上,综述主要因果推断方法的理论基础、适用条件及其在气候趋势、极端事件、遥相关和模式评估等研究中的应用进展。相较于传统方法,因果推断在控制自相关与混杂因素的前提下识别潜在因果关系方面具有独特优势,并有效提升了归因的解释能力。当前因果推断方法研究面临的主要问题包括:对隐变量敏感、依赖样本量、受非平稳性和空间异质性影响等。未来可进一步加强物理先验、观测因果发现、气候模式干预试验以及多源资料和多方法稳健性检验之间的结合,形成相互验证的混合归因框架,以提高归因结论的稳健性和物理可解释性。
Abstract: Climate attribution aims to identify and quantify the drivers of climate change and extreme events, providing a scientific basis for understanding climate-system evolution, assessing anthropogenic influences, and supporting climate adaptation and mitigation. Traditional approaches, including regression, correlation analysis, and optimal fingerprinting, have developed relatively mature frameworks for detecting and attributing human influences on global and regional climate change. However, the climate system is characterized by strong nonlinearity, multiscale coupling, time lags, and multiple interacting drivers, making it difficult for conventional methods alone to resolve directional interactions and transmission pathways. In recent years, causal inference methods, such as Granger causality, transfer entropy, graphical models, convergent cross mapping, and counterfactual inference, have been increasingly introduced into Earth system science, extending climate attribution from signal detection toward process and mechanism interpretation. Importantly, these methods encode different meanings of causality: Granger causality reflects predictive gain, graphical models identify candidate causal structures through conditional independence, whereas counterfactual approaches focus on changes in outcomes under interventions or alternative scenarios. This review summarizes the theoretical foundations, applicability, and recent applications of major causal inference methods in trend attribution, extreme events, teleconnections, and climate-model evaluation. Current challenges include hidden variables, limited effective sample sizes, nonstationarity, and spatial heterogeneity. Future progress will require hybrid attribution frameworks that integrate physical priors, observational causal discovery, model-based interventions, and multisource, multi-method robustness assessments.
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