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地球科学进展  2008, Vol. 23 Issue (5): 533-540    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2008.05.0533
地质灾害     
地下工程岩爆预测的综合集成方法
李天斌1,肖学沛1,2
1.成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川 成都 610059;2.四川省交通厅公路规划勘察设计研究院,四川 成都 610041
Comprehensively Integrated Methods of Rockburst Prediction in Underground Engineering
Li Tianbin1,Xiao Xuepei1,2
1.State Key Labortory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059,China; 2.Sichuan Province Communication Department Highway Planning, Survey, Design and Research Institute, Chengdu 610041,China
 全文: PDF(1467 KB)  
摘要:

鉴于地下工程中岩爆预测的各种方法的局限性以及预报准确率低的现状,提出了地下工程岩爆综合集成预测的学术思路。这种学术思路将定性预测与定量预测相结合、单因素预测与多因素预测相结合,引入处理复杂性问题行之有效的非线性科学理论,对岩爆进行综合集成预测。详细介绍了岩爆预测的综合集成方法,包括:地质分析预测法、应力强度比法、层次分析—模糊评判法和神经网络法,并将其应用于雅砻江某水电站交通隧道岩爆预测中,取得了较好的效果。

关键词: 岩爆预测应力强度比法层次分析-模糊评判法神经网络法    
Abstract:

In view of the low accuracy of rockburst prediction in underground engineering and the flaws of existing methods of prediction, an academic thought of comprehensively integrated prediction for rock burst is put forward in the paper. According to the thought, the rockburst prediction must combine the qualitative prediction with the quantitative forecast, the single factor prediction with the many factors forecast. Nonlinear scientific theory, which is effective in solution of complex problems, should be used to the comprehensively integrated prediction for rock burst. In this paper, the comprehensively integrated methods of rockburst prediction are recommended in detail, including comprehensive geologic analysis, stress-strength ratio method, AHP-FUZZY assessment and neural network method. These methods were used to forecast the rockburst of traffic tunnels in Jinping Ⅱ Hydropower Station on Yalong river in west China, obtaining a good results.

Key words: Rockburst prediction    Stress-strength ratio method    AHP-FUZZY assessment method    Neural network method
收稿日期: 2008-04-12 出版日期: 2008-05-10
:  TU45  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目“西南地区地下工程岩爆机制及其地质力学模式研究”(编号:40772176);教育部重点项目“地下工程岩爆机制研究”(编号:207102)共同资助.

通讯作者: 李天斌     E-mail: ltb@cdut.edu.cn
作者简介: 李天斌(1964-),男,四川西充人,教授,博导,主要从事地质工程和岩土工程的教学和科研工作.E-mail:ltb@cdut.edu.cn
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引用本文:

李天斌,肖学沛. 地下工程岩爆预测的综合集成方法[J]. 地球科学进展, 2008, 23(5): 533-540.

Li Tianbin,Xiao Xuepei. Comprehensively Integrated Methods of Rockburst Prediction in Underground Engineering. Advances in Earth Science, 2008, 23(5): 533-540.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2008.05.0533        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2008/V23/I5/533

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