西北区冰雹日气候分析及预测方法研究

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.02.0136

地球科学进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2): 136 -142. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.02.0136

西北区冰雹日气候分析及预测方法研究

赵红岩 ^1，2，杨瑜峰 ¹，赵庆云 ¹，汤懋苍 ³，康凤琴 ¹，白彦芳 ⁴

1.中国气象局兰州干旱研究所，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730020 ；2 .兰州区域气候中心，甘肃兰州 730020 ；3.中国科学院寒区旱区环境工程研究所，甘肃兰州 730000 ；4.青海气候中心，青海西宁 810001

收稿日期:2007-01-01 修回日期:2007-01-01 出版日期:2007-02-10
通讯作者: 赵红岩（1965-），女，内蒙古赤峰人，副研究员，主要从事气候诊断和气候预测研究.E-mail:lz-zhy@sohu.com E-mail:lz-zhy@sohu.com
基金资助:
科技部2002年社会公益研究项目“西北区人工防雹技术”（编号：2002DIB10046）；中国科技部科研院所社会公益研究项目“中国干旱气象灾害监测预警方法研究”（编号：2004DIBDIB5J192）共同资助.

Climatic Analysis and Forecasting Method of Hail in Northwest China

ZHAO Hong-yan ^1,2, YANG Yu-feng ¹, ZHAO Qing-yun ¹, TANG Mao-cang ³, KANG Feng-qin ¹, BAI Yan-fang ⁴

1.Lanzhou Arid Institute of Meteorology,China Meteorologocal Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducting Disaster in Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020 ,China; 2．Lanzhou Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020,China; 3.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 4.Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 730020,China

Received:2007-01-01 Revised:2007-01-01 Online:2007-02-10 Published:2007-02-10

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利用1970 —2001 年1 ～12 月中国西北区冰雹日数的气象实测资料，将年冰雹日数发生的变化趋势看作每年的一个气候现象，分析其发生的气候变化趋势、年代际变化以及与大气环流的相关关系，得出多雹年北半球500 h Pa 极涡强、位置偏东，副热带高压面积小、强度弱、位置偏南，乌拉尔山至巴尔喀什湖高度场为正距平，雅库次克至贝加尔湖高度场为负距平。少雹年北半球500 h Pa 极涡弱、位置偏西，副热带高压面积大、强度强、位置偏北，乌拉尔山至巴尔喀什湖高度场为负距平，雅库次克至贝加尔湖高度场为正距平区。从而找出冰雹气候趋势预测的着眼点，建立冰雹短期气候预测概念模型；此模型对冰雹发生变化趋势的预测具有一定的实用价值。

关键词: 西北区, 冰雹气候变化, 预测概念模型

Based on the daily recorded date of annual hail from 1970 to 2001 and 500 hPa northern hemisphere, correlative analyses showed that annual hail days climate during summer in Northwest China at some extent had relation with winter circulation field and pole region circulation，westerly circulation and subtropical anticyclone. The contrast analysis showed that polar vortex was lower in 500 hPa northern hemisphere in hail-more years, positive anomaly from mountain Ural to Baikash lake, but negative anomaly from Yakutsk to Baikal lake, However, the conditions in hail-less periods and years were just adverse．A conceptual model for forecasting hail phenomena of the study region has been put forward.Results judged by the conceptual model are accordant to the results of multivariate regression analysis. It has proved by the application that the conceptual model has considerable forecasting ability.

Key words: Northweast China, Climate variation of hail, Conceptual forecasting model.

中图分类号:

P458.1+21.2

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