收稿日期: 2003-06-16
修回日期: 2003-10-21
网络出版日期: 2004-10-01
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目“全球大尺度陆地年、季节降水量的气候变化和年代际变化”(编号：40275028)资助
SECULAR VARIATION OF LARGE-SCALE AREAS PRECIPITATION FROM JUNE TO AUGUST IN 1948-2001
研究了1948-2001年南、北半球及欧亚大陆、非洲大陆、澳洲大陆、北美大陆、南美大陆、南极大陆和中国 7个大尺度区域 6～8月降水的长期趋势变化和年代际变化。结果表明，南、北半球 6～8月的降水都为负趋势，但南半球降水的负趋势在统计上不显著。在54年的时间段内，南半球 6～8月降水的递减速度为 0．12 mm／a，仅为北半球同期降水减幅（0．24 mm／a）的一半。南、北半球 6～8月降水量年代际尺度的振荡都非常明显，但是，南、北半球年代际变化的特征明显不同。目前北半球仍是在少雨时间段，而南半球处在降水量正常或多雨的时间段。分析还表明，非洲大陆 6～ 8月降水的年代际特征最明显，降水的负趋势也最为显著；欧亚大陆 6～8月降水也有着明显的年代际变化与明显的负趋势变化；澳洲大陆 6～8月降水的年际变化明显，年代际变化相对来说要小得多；北美大陆 6～8月降水的年际变化明显，但无明显的趋势变化。此外，分析了大尺度区域 6～ 8月降水之间的相关关系，发现部分区域大尺度降水量之间有明显的联系；分析了中国夏季降水的长期变化，发现中国夏季降水的年代际变化明显，但无明显的趋势变化。
黄先香 , 施能 , 高鸿 , 顾骏强 . 1948—2001年全球大尺度区域 6～8月降水的长期变化[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004 , 19(5) : 824 -830 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.05.0824
The secular trend and interdecadal variation of precipitation from June to August (JJA) in 1948-2001 over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the Southern Hemisphere (SH), China, Eurasia, Africa, Australia, North America, South America and Antarctica are investigated. The results indicate that the precipitation of the NH and SH has a negative trend. But for the SH, the trend has not passed the statistical significance. In the 54th years, the lapse rate of precipitation during JJA over the SH is 0.12mm/a, just half as much as that over the NH. The interdecadal variations of precipitation during JJA over the NH and SH are both significant，but their features are very different. Now the rainfall over the NH and SH correspond to dry period and normal or wet period respectively. The secular variation of precipitation during JJA over the six large-scale areas is discussed. It suggests that the interdecadal variation and minus-trend of precipitation during JJA over Africa are the most significant. Next comes Eurasia. The interdecadal variation of precipitation over Australia is weak, and its interannual variation is stronger. The interannual variation of precipitation during JJA over North America is apparent while its trend is not marked. In addition, the correlations among six large-scale areas precipitation are analyzed. Study shows that obvious relationships of precipitation exist among some parts of large-scale areas. The secular changes of precipitation in summer over China are explored, and it shows that the interdecadal variation of precipitation is apparent while its trend is not marked.
［1］Bradley R S, Diaz H F, Eischeid J K,et al. Precipitation fluctuations over northern hemisphere land areas since the Mid-19th century［J］. Science, 1987，237(4 811)：171-175.
［2］Diaz H F, Bradley R S, Eischeid J K. Precipitation fluctuations over global land areas since the late 1800's［J］. Journal of Geophysical Research，1989，94(D1)：1 195-1 210.
［3］Hulme M. A 1951-80 global land precipitation climatology for the evaluation of general circulation models［J］. Climate Dynamics, 1992，7(2) ：57-72.
［4］Luo Yunfeng(罗云峰),Zhou Xiaogang(周小刚),Lu Zewei(陆则慰),et al. Review and prospect of atmospheric science for recent 15 years［J］.Advances in Earth Science(地球科学进展)，2001,16(6):865-870(in Chinese).
［5］Shi Neng(施能), Chen Lüwen(陈绿文). Secular variation of global annual precipitation fields(1948-2000)［J］. Chinese Science Bulletin(科学通报), 2002, 47（21）：1 671-1 674(in Chinese).
［6］Jiang Tong(姜彤), Shi Yafeng(施雅风). Global climatic warming, the Yangtze floods and potential loss［J］. Advances in Earth Science(地球科学进展), 2003,18(2):277-284(in Chinese).
［7］Huang Xianxiang(黄先香), Shi Neng(施能), Yan Lijun(炎利军). Temporal-spatial feature of secular variation of global Land rainfall for June-August during 1948-2001［J］. [WT6BX]Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(南京气象学院学报), 2003, 26(2)：201-209(in Chinese).
［8］Shi Neng(施能), Chen Lüwen(陈绿文), Feng Guolin(封国林). Climatic change of global land flood/drought in June-August during 1920-2000［J］. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(气象学报), 2003, 61(2) ：237-244(in Chinese).
［9］Shi Neng(施能), Huang Xianxiang(黄先香), Yang Yang(杨扬). Space/time features of the trend variation of global land annual rainfall fields from 1948-2000［J］. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica(大气科学), 2003,27(6): 971-982(in Chinese).
［10］Chen M, Xie Pingping, Janowiak J E, et al. Global Precipitation: A 50 year monthly analysis based on Gauge observations［J］. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2002,3(3)：249-266.
［11］Shi Neng(施能), Chen Jiaqi(陈家其), Tu Qipu(屠其璞). 4-Phase climate change features in the last 100 years over China［J］. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(气象学报), 1995，53（4）：431-439(in Chinese).
［12］Shi Neng(施能), Wei Fengying(魏凤英), Feng Guolin(封国林), et al. Monte carlo test used in correlation and composite analysis of meteorological fields［J］. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(南京气象学院学报), 1997,20（3）：355-359(in Chinese).
［13］Shi Neng(施能). Secular variation of winter atmospheric teleconnection pattern in the northern hemisphere and its relation with China's climate change［J］. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(气象学报), 1996，54（6）：675-683(in Chinese).
［14］Shi Neng, Deng Ziwang. Space/time features of the secular trend variation in 1951-1998 northern 500 hPa height［J］. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physiscs,2000,73:35-46.
［15］Nicholson S E. Sub-saharan rainfall in the years 1976-1980: Evidence of continue drought［J］. Monthly Weather Review, 1983，111:1 646-1 654.
［16］Hulme M. Rainfall changes in Africa:1931-1960 to 1960-1990［J］.International Journal of Climatology，1995，12:685-699.
［17］Shi Neng(施能), Ma Li(马丽),Yuan Xiaoyu(袁晓玉)Analysis of climatic variation features in Zhejiang province based on 1951-1999 data［J］.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(南京气象学院学报), 2001,24(2):207-213(in Chinese).
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
甘公网安备62010202000687
