华北地区冬小麦生育期中短尺度气象干旱演变特征及影响因素解析
收稿日期: 2025-01-24
修回日期: 2025-03-17
网络出版日期: 2025-05-13
基金资助
河南省科技攻关项目(252102321002);河南理工大学双一流创建项目(GCCYJ202431)
The Variation Characteristics and Its Influencing Factors of Medium and Short Scale Meteorological Drought During the Growth Period of Winter Wheat in North China
Received date: 2025-01-24
Revised date: 2025-03-17
Online published: 2025-05-13
Supported by
the Henan Provincial Science and Technology Project(252102321002);Henan Polytechnic University’s Double First-Class Creation Project(GCCYJ202431)
华北地区是我国重要的粮食生产基地,而干旱灾害是影响该地区可持续农业的最突出因素之一。以华北地区冬小麦关键生育期为切入点,基于3个月时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI-3)和大尺度环流等数据,借助游程理论和聚类分析等手段,解析冬小麦生育期干旱事件空间分异规律,探讨干湿时空变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明:1961—2021年华北地区冬小麦生育期呈湿润化态势,尤其是孕穗期—成熟期;冬小麦生育期干湿变化空间差异较大,河北省、河南省及山东省等地湿润化趋势明显,而山西省干化现象突出;河南省及周边冬小麦全生育期干旱发生频率高、持续时间短,而河北省和山东省北部等地干旱持续时间长、发生频率低、严重程度高,不同生育期干旱事件空间结构聚类模式不同;在冬小麦全生育期、出苗期—分蘖期、越冬期—拔节期和孕穗期—成熟期SPEI-3与环流因子存在很强的关系,主要影响因子依次为热带北大西洋指数、太平洋北美型指数、北极涛动指数和厄尔尼诺3.4区海温距平指数,研究结果可为华北地区农业抗旱减灾决策提供支撑。
郭灵辉 , 闫静静 , 罗媛媛 , 徐紫萌 , 高江波 , 吴绍洪 , 冯千凤 . 华北地区冬小麦生育期中短尺度气象干旱演变特征及影响因素解析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2025 , 40(4) : 374 -387 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.027
The North China region is one of the most important grains productions regions in China, and climatic drought is the primary natural disaster affecting agricultural production, always resulting in immense lose for the agriculture. Hence, exploring the spatiotemporal evolution and formation mechanism of drought in North China is an important basis for a quantitative understanding of drought mechanisms as well as the scientific prevention and control of drought disaster risk, insuring regional and even national food security. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) and large-scale circulation data, this study systematically investigated spatial variation patterns of drought events during the growth period of winter wheat and their potential influencing factors by integrating run length theory, cluster analysis, and wavelet transform coherence methods. Results show that the climate during the winter wheat growth period in North China (1961-2021) became increasingly moist, particularly from the booting to the maturity stages, Significant spatial differences in dry and wet conditions were observed, with increasing humidification in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong provinces, and a drying trend in Shanxi Province. Henan Province and surrounding areas experienced more frequent but shorter-duration droughts, whereas the opposite pattern was observed in Hebei Province and northern Shandong Province. Spatial clustering patterns of drought events varied across individual growth stages. SPEI-3 was strongly corelated with atmospheric circulation indices throughout the winter wheat growth cycle, including the emergence-tillering, overwintering-jointing, and booting-maturity stages, with TNA, PNA, AO, and NINO34 identified as key influencing factors. The results of this study could provide regional specific valuable insights for agricultural drought resistance and disaster reduction decision-making in North China.
1 | LI S S, YAO Z J, LIU Z F, et al. The spatio-temporal characteristics of drought across Tibet, China: derived from meteorological and agricultural drought indexes[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019, 137: 2 409-2 424. |
2 | DAI A, TRENBERTH K E, QIAN T. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming[J]. Journal of hydrometeorology, 2004, 5(6): 1 117-1 130. |
3 | SHIRAZI S Z, LIU B C, LIU Y, et al. Understanding climate variability and its impact on drought occurrences in maize producing regions: evidence from north of China[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2024, 306. DOI:10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109150 . |
4 | WU R, WANG Z J, CUI C F, et al. Applicability analysis of comprehensive drought index based on GRACE data in ten major river basins in China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 645. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132275 . |
5 | WANG Dandan, PAN Donghua, GUO Guizhen. Regional analysis of agro-meteorological disasters loss tendency variation from 1978 to 2016 in China[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2018, 33(2): 114-121, 145. |
王丹丹, 潘东华, 郭桂祯. 1978—2016年全国分区农业气象灾害灾情趋势分析[J]. 灾害学, 2018, 33(2): 114-121, 145. | |
6 | WANG Q, LIU Y Y, ZHANG Y Z, et al. Assessment of spatial agglomeration of agricultural drought disaster in China from 1978 to 2016[J]. Scientific Reports, 2019, 9(1).DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-51042-x . |
7 | HONG Shuman, HAO Jinmin, ZHOU Ning, et al. Change of cultivated land and its impact on grain production pattern in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2014, 30(21): 268-277. |
洪舒蔓, 郝晋珉, 周宁, 等. 黄淮海平原耕地变化及对粮食生产格局变化的影响[J]. 农业工程学报, 2014, 30(21): 268-277. | |
8 | CHEN Fangzao, LIU Jiang, LI Maosong. Researches on spatial and temporal succession law of agricultural drought in the past 60 years in China[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2011, 36(4): 111-114. |
陈方藻, 刘江, 李茂松. 60年来中国农业干旱时空演替规律研究[J]. 西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, 36(4): 111-114. | |
9 | AHMADI M, ETEDALI H R, KAVIANI A, et al. Evaluation of meteorological drought indices using remote sensing[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2024, 265. DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106387 . |
10 | LEE S, MORIASI D N, MEHR A D, et al. Sensitivity of Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to the choice of SPEI probability distribution and evapotranspiration method[J]. Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, 2024, 53. DIO:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101761. |
11 | ZHANG J, SUN F B, XU J J, et al. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2016, 43(1): 206-213. |
12 | ZHANG Long, ZHAO Funian, LI Guochang, et al. The similarities and difference between two kinds of standardized drought indices in monitoring drought in Wuwei of Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2013, 31(2): 412-418, 431. |
张龙, 赵福年, 李国昌, 等. 2种标准化干旱指标在甘肃武威干旱监测中的对比[J]. 干旱气象, 2013, 31(2): 412-418, 431. | |
13 | WANG W J, GUO B, ZHANG Y Q, et al. The sensitivity of the SPEI to potential evapotranspiration and precipitation at multiple timescales on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2021, 143(1): 87-99. |
14 | WANG W S, YANG H B, HUANG S Z, et al. Trivariate Copula functions for constructing a comprehensive atmosphere-land surface-hydrology drought index: a case study in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 642. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131784 . |
15 | LING M H, HAN H B, HU X Y, et al. Drought characteristics and causes during summer maize growth period on Huang-Huai-Hai Plain based on daily scale SPEI[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2023, 280. DOI:10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108198 . |
16 | LIU X F, PAN Y Z, ZHU X F, et al. Drought evolution and its impact on the crop yield in the North China Plain[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2018, 564: 984-996. |
17 | WANG Nan, GU Yuhui, MA Xiaoyi. The effects of agricultural drought on agro-ecosystem carbon fluxes in the North China Plains[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2023(9): 75-83. |
王楠, 辜玉慧, 马孝义. 农业干旱对华北平原农业生态系统碳通量的影响[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2023(9): 75-83. | |
18 | XIA Yingxin, XIAO Erlong, LI Daocheng, et al. Prediction of spatial distribution of soil organic carbon density in farmland of North China Plain based on phenology information[J/OL]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2025: 1-17. [2025-03-06]. . |
夏迎新, 肖二龙, 李道诚, 等. 基于物候信息的华北平原农田土壤有机碳密度空间分布预测[J/OL].节水灌溉,2025: 1-17.[2025-03-06]. . | |
19 | XU C Y, XU Z M, LI Y, et al. Drought characteristics and causes during winter wheat growth stages in North China[J]. Sustainability, 2024, 16(14). DOI: 10.3390/su16145958 . |
20 | DUTTA D, NANDA M K, KUNDU R, et al. El Ni?o Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole teleconnection to the wetness and drought trend of Bhutan using time series (1983-2022) PERSIANN rainfall data[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2024, 135. DOI:10.1016/j.jag.2024.104228 . |
21 | WANG F, LAI H X, LI Y B, et al. Terrestrial ecological drought dynamics and its response to atmospheric circulation factors in the North China Plain[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2023, 294. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106944 . |
22 | XU Qiaoting, CHEN Lian, FAN Yuehua, et al. Relationship between lanzhou drought and climate indices based on SPEI index[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2021, 41(2): 56-62. |
徐乔婷, 陈涟, 范月华, 等. 基于SPEI指数的兰州干旱特征与气候指数的关系[J]. 水文, 2021, 41(2): 56-62. | |
23 | YAO N, LI L C, FENG P Y, et al. Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 704. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135245 . |
24 | GUO L H, LUO Y Y, LI Y, et al. Spatiotemporal changes and the prediction of drought characteristics in a major grain-producing area of China[J]. Sustainability, 2023, 15(22). DOI: 10.3390/su152215737 . |
25 | GHASEMI P, KARBASI M, NOURI A Z, et al. Application of Gaussian process regression to forecast multi-step ahead SPEI drought index[J]. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 2021, 60(6): 5 375-5 392. |
26 | LI Xiangxiang, JU Hui, LIU Qin, et al. Analysis of drought characters based on the SPEI-PM index in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017, 37(6): 2 054-2 066. |
李翔翔, 居辉, 刘勤, 等. 基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析[J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37(6): 2 054-2 066. | |
27 | ZENG Z Q, WU W X, LI Y M, et al. Spatiotemporal variations in drought and wetness from 1965 to 2017 in China[J]. Water, 2020, 12(8). DOI: 10.3390/w12082097 . |
28 | JIA Yanqing, LIU Xiuli. Variation of dry-wet climate and its correlation with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in North China during 1961-2020[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2024, 38(5): 140-151. |
贾艳青, 刘秀丽. 1961—2020年中国华北地区干湿演变特征及与ENSO、PDO的关系[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2024, 38(5): 140-151. | |
29 | LUO D, YE L L, SUN D C. Risk evaluation of agricultural drought disaster using a grey cloud clustering model in Henan Province, China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020, 49. DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101759 . |
30 | WAN F, ZHANG F, WANG Y, et al. Study on the propagation law of meteorological drought to hydrological drought under variable time scale: an example from the Yellow River water supply area in Henan[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2023, 154. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110873 . |
31 | WANG Zhenglei, LIU Hailong, DING Yanan, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological security in Shanxi Province[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022, 42(18): 7 470-7 483. |
王争磊, 刘海龙, 丁娅楠, 等. 山西省生态安全时空演变特征及影响因素[J]. 生态学报, 2022, 42(18): 7 470-7 483. | |
32 | HUANG Feng, DU Taisheng, WANG Sufen, et al. Current situation and future security of agricultural water resources in North China[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 2019, 21(5): 28-37. |
黄峰, 杜太生, 王素芬, 等. 华北地区农业水资源现状和未来保障研究[J]. 中国工程科学, 2019, 21(5): 28-37. | |
33 | ZHANG Guanghui, FEI Yuhong, LIU Chunhua, et al. Adaptation between irrigation intensity and groundwater carrying capacity in North China Plain[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2013, 29(1): 1-10. |
张光辉, 费宇红, 刘春华, 等. 华北平原灌溉用水强度与地下水承载力适应性状况[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 29(1): 1-10. | |
34 | RONG X Y, ZHANG R H, LI T. Impacts of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on Indo-East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55(22): 2 458-2 468. |
35 | XU Mingli, WANG Fei, XU Fei, et al. Study on drought evolution characteristics and teleconnection driving forces based on vegetation condition index in China[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2024, 42(4): 20-24, 19. |
徐明立, 王飞, 徐菲, 等. 基于植被状态指数的中国干旱演变特征及遥相关驱动研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2024, 42(4): 20-24, 19. | |
36 | LI Y F, LEUNG L R. Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(3): 899-917. |
37 | ZHAO T, LI X D, LI Y, et al. Concurrent droughts across major river basins of the world modulated by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 644. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132112 . |
38 | ZHOU Dan, LUO Jing, ZHENG Ling, et al. Characteristics and causes of meteorological drought in North China based on grid data[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2019, 26(4): 195-202. |
周丹, 罗静, 郑玲, 等. 基于格点数据的华北地区气象干旱特征及成因分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2019, 26(4): 195-202. |
/
〈 |
|
〉 |