华北地区冬小麦生育期中短尺度气象干旱演变特征及影响因素解析
收稿日期: 2025-01-24
修回日期: 2025-03-17
网络出版日期: 2025-05-13
基金资助
河南省科技攻关项目(252102321002);河南理工大学双一流创建项目(GCCYJ202431)
The Variation Characteristics and Its Influencing Factors of Medium and Short Scale Meteorological Drought During the Growth Period of Winter Wheat in North China
Received date: 2025-01-24
Revised date: 2025-03-17
Online published: 2025-05-13
Supported by
the Henan Provincial Science and Technology Project(252102321002);Henan Polytechnic University’s Double First-Class Creation Project(GCCYJ202431)
华北地区是我国重要的粮食生产基地，而干旱灾害是影响该地区可持续农业的最突出因素之一。以华北地区冬小麦关键生育期为切入点，基于3个月时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI-3）和大尺度环流等数据，借助游程理论和聚类分析等手段，解析冬小麦生育期干旱事件空间分异规律，探讨干湿时空变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明：1961—2021年华北地区冬小麦生育期呈湿润化态势，尤其是孕穗期—成熟期；冬小麦生育期干湿变化空间差异较大，河北省、河南省及山东省等地湿润化趋势明显，而山西省干化现象突出；河南省及周边冬小麦全生育期干旱发生频率高、持续时间短，而河北省和山东省北部等地干旱持续时间长、发生频率低、严重程度高，不同生育期干旱事件空间结构聚类模式不同；在冬小麦全生育期、出苗期—分蘖期、越冬期—拔节期和孕穗期—成熟期SPEI-3与环流因子存在很强的关系，主要影响因子依次为热带北大西洋指数、太平洋北美型指数、北极涛动指数和厄尔尼诺3.4区海温距平指数，研究结果可为华北地区农业抗旱减灾决策提供支撑。
郭灵辉 , 闫静静 , 罗媛媛 , 徐紫萌 , 高江波 , 吴绍洪 , 冯千凤 . 华北地区冬小麦生育期中短尺度气象干旱演变特征及影响因素解析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2025 , 40(4) : 374 -387 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.027
The North China region is one of the most important grains productions regions in China, and climatic drought is the primary natural disaster affecting agricultural production, always resulting in immense lose for the agriculture. Hence, exploring the spatiotemporal evolution and formation mechanism of drought in North China is an important basis for a quantitative understanding of drought mechanisms as well as the scientific prevention and control of drought disaster risk, insuring regional and even national food security. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) and large-scale circulation data, this study systematically investigated spatial variation patterns of drought events during the growth period of winter wheat and their potential influencing factors by integrating run length theory, cluster analysis, and wavelet transform coherence methods. Results show that the climate during the winter wheat growth period in North China (1961-2021) became increasingly moist, particularly from the booting to the maturity stages, Significant spatial differences in dry and wet conditions were observed, with increasing humidification in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong provinces, and a drying trend in Shanxi Province. Henan Province and surrounding areas experienced more frequent but shorter-duration droughts, whereas the opposite pattern was observed in Hebei Province and northern Shandong Province. Spatial clustering patterns of drought events varied across individual growth stages. SPEI-3 was strongly corelated with atmospheric circulation indices throughout the winter wheat growth cycle, including the emergence-tillering, overwintering-jointing, and booting-maturity stages, with TNA, PNA, AO, and NINO34 identified as key influencing factors. The results of this study could provide regional specific valuable insights for agricultural drought resistance and disaster reduction decision-making in North China.
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