面向碳中和的气候变化预估与风险研究新框架

张井勇

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.0001

地球科学进展 >

2025 , Vol. 40 >Issue 1: 15 - 20

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.0001

大气海洋

面向碳中和的气候变化预估与风险研究新框架

张井勇

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^1.中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟与应用全国重点实验室，北京 100029
^2.中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院，北京 100049

张井勇，主要从事碳中和与气候变化、地球系统模拟与气候预测等方面研究. E-mail：zjy@mail.iap.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2024-11-23

修回日期: 2024-12-30

网络出版日期: 2025-03-24

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA0606500);国家重大科技基础设施项目(2023-EL-ZD-00068)

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New Framework for Studies of Climate Change Projections and Risks Oriented Towards Carbon Neutrality

Jingyong ZHANG

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^1.National Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
^2.College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

ZHANG Jingyong, research areas include carbon neutrality and climate change, Earth system simulations and climate prediction. E-mail: zjy@mail.iap.ac.cn

Received date: 2024-11-23

Revised date: 2024-12-30

Online published: 2025-03-24

Supported by

National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606500);National Large Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project(2023-EL-ZD-00068)

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摘要

基于“正排放时期—净零时期—净负时期”的划分方法，建立了面向碳中和的气候变化预估与风险研究新框架。聚焦“一带一路”主要区域，系统开展了SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6两种可持续发展路径情景下面向碳中和的未来平均与极端气候变化预估以及灾害风险研究。在全球碳中和时期，预计“一带一路”主要区域平均与极端气候变化将呈现新特征、新格局，气候灾害风险将出现新变化。建立的新框架为气候变化未来预估与灾害风险评估提供了新方案，建议正在启动与开展的联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第七次气候变化评估报告及将来的气候变化评估报告纳入面向碳中和的气候变化评估作为其重要组成部分，为人类社会共同应对气候变化和实现可持续发展提供新认识。最后，讨论了人工智能技术在未来气候变化预估与风险评估中的应用。

关键词： 气候变化; 碳中和目标; 未来预估; 灾害风险; 人工智能; 可持续发展

本文引用格式

张井勇 . 面向碳中和的气候变化预估与风险研究新框架[J]. 地球科学进展, 2025 , 40(1) : 15 -20 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.0001

Abstract

A new framework for studying climate change projections and disaster risks oriented towards carbon neutrality was developed using a division method of positive emissions, net zero, and net negative periods. Focusing on the main Belt and Road regions, future mean and extreme climate change projections and disaster risks oriented towards carbon neutrality were systematically addressed under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 sustainable development pathways. Moreover, it is projected that over global carbon neutrality or net-zero periods, climate change will exhibit new characteristics and patterns, and disaster risks will undergo new changes over the main Belt and Road regions. The newly developed framework provides a new scheme for climate change projection and disaster risk assessment. The seventh assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other future assessment reports on climate change should include climate change projections and disaster risk assessments oriented towards carbon neutrality, which can provide new scientific knowledge for jointly dealing with climate change and achieving sustainable development. Additionally, the role and application of Artificial Intelligence in future climate change projections and climate disaster risks assessments are discussed.

Key words： Climate change; Carbon neutrality target; Future projection; Disaster risk; Artificial intelligence; Sustainable development

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