井壁坍塌压力的预测对钻井安全、降低施工成本以及实现高效钻井等具有关键意义，复杂 超深层地质条件下的裂缝发育状况对坍塌压力预测存在较大影响。常规的方法大多基于有限元 模拟进行三维地质力学建模，并用于三维坍塌应力预测。尽管该方法精度较高，但需要巨大的算 力资源，基于此提出了一种基于地震数据驱动的高效快速的地应力建模方法流程，进而用于三维 坍塌压力的预测。首先，结合叠前地震和岩石力学测井的多尺度数据资料，建立融入曲率属性的 组合弹簧模型，完成了三维地应力场的高效快速建模，并用于三维井周应力计算；其次，基于最大 似然属性，从三维地震数据中获取裂缝发育情况，为研究区提供三维弱面属性参数；最后，将井周 应力和裂缝参数带入Mohr-Coulomb 准则，进行沿裂缝面滑移的坍塌模型计算，实现了裂缝性地层 从一维测井数据到三维工区的坍塌压力预测。并将该方法应用于塔里木工区，结果表明，该模型 地应力预测结果与实测数据吻合度较高，达到93.79%；坍塌压力预测结果与地层微电阻率扫描成 像解释结果相吻合，验证了该方法预测井壁坍塌事件的可行性。实现了高精度坍塌压力的快速建 模，有效地为超深复杂地区的钻井施工提供了地质工程一体化解决方案。

Abstract： The prediction of borehole collapse pressure plays a key role in drilling safety, reducing construction cost and realizing efficient drilling. The fracture development in complex ultra-deep geological conditions has a great influence on the prediction of borehole collapse pressure. The conventional methods are mostly based on finite element simulation for 3D geomechanical modeling and 3D collapse stress prediction. Although the method is highly accurate, it requires huge computing power resources. In order to solve this problem, an efficient and fast in-situ stress modeling method flow driven by seismic data is proposed in this paper, which is then used for 3D collapse pressure prediction. Firstly, combined with multi-scale data of pre-stack seismic and rock mechanics logging, a combined spring model with curvature properties is established to complete the efficient and rapid modeling of three-dimensional in-situ stress field, and is used to calculate threedimensional borehole stress. Secondly, based on the maximum likelihood attribute, the fracture development is obtained from 3D seismic data to provide 3D weak surface attribute parameters for the study area. Finally, the collapse model of sliding along fracture plane is calculated by using Mohr-Coulomb criterion, and the collapse pressure prediction of fractured formation is realized from one-dimensional logging data to three-dimensional working area. The method is applied in the woodworking area of Tari, and the results show that the prediction results of the model are in good agreement with the measured data, reaching 93.79%. The prediction results of collapse pressure are in good agreement with the interpretation results of formation microresistivity scanning imaging, which verifies the feasibility of this method in predicting borehole wall collapse events. This study can realize the rapid modeling of collapse pressure with high precision, and effectively provide an integrated solution of geological engineering for drilling construction in ultra-deep and complex areas.