雷暴大风的时空分布、形成机理和 预报方法研究进展

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  • (1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所 云降水物理与强风暴实验室,北京 100029;2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;3. 国家气象中心,北京 100081;4. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气 国家重点实验室,北京 100081;5. 安徽省气象台,合肥 230031)
孙建华,主要从事灾害天气和中尺度气象学的研究. E-mail:sjh@mail.iap.ac.cn

网络出版日期: 2024-12-19

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42375008);北京市自然科学基金项目(编号:8222079);安徽省自然科学基金江淮气象联合基金项目(编号:2208085UQ11)资助.

Research Progress on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution, Formation Mechanism and Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Wind

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  • (1. Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 2. University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China; 4. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; 5. Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China)
First author: SUN Jianhua, research areas include mesoscale meteorology and disaster weather. E-mail: sjh@mail.iap.ac.cn

Online published: 2024-12-19

Supported by

Project supported by the National Natural Science Program (Grant No. 42375008); The Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 8222079); Jianghuai Meteorological Joint Project of Anhui Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 2208085UQ11).

摘要

雷暴大风是预报难度较大的强对流天气之一,为了继续提高雷暴大风的形成机理认识和 预报准确率,对国内外雷暴大风和相关对流系统的形成机理与预报方法的重要成果进行了回顾。 简要介绍了世界上雷暴大风的时空分布特征,中国的雷暴大风主要发生在东部地区,华北北部、东 北中南部和广东为高发区。概述了产生雷暴大风的母对流系统的组织类型、结构特征及雷暴大风 的形成机制:飑线和弓状回波是产生雷暴大风的主要对流系统之一,且容易产生强雷暴大风;飑线 或者弓状回波中的后向入流、γ-中尺度涡旋等系统是产生地面大风的重要结构特征。总结了雷暴 大风发生的大气环境条件和预报方法:大气环境的有关热力和动力因子都会影响雷暴大风的产生 和强度,但对流活动的强度主要依赖于对流有效位能和垂直风切变的共变关系;数值预报、基于物 理理解的方法(配料法)和深度学习/机器学习方法是目前在雷暴大风的短临、短期预报业务中采用 的主要方法。最后指出针对我国雷暴大风,在精细的时空分布特征、不同大气环境条件下雷暴大 风形成机理和预报方法等方面仍有待进一步研究。

本文引用格式

孙建华, 田付友, 夏茹娣, 郑淋淋, 黄玥 . 雷暴大风的时空分布、形成机理和 预报方法研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2024.082.

Abstract

Abstract:To improve the understanding of the formation mechanism and forecast accuracy of severe convective winds(SCWs), the important achievements of the formation mechanism and forecasting methods of severe convective winds and related convective systems were reviewed. Firstly, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of severe convective wind in the world are briefly introduced. SCWs in China mainly occur in the eastern region, with high-frequency areas in northern North China, central and southern Northeast China, and Guangdong Province. Then, the relationship between the organizational modes and structural features of the parent convective systems that generates SCWs, the influence of atmospheric environmental conditions, forecasting methods are summarized. Squall lines and bow echoes are important convective systems that generate SCWs, especially strong SCWs. The rear inflow jet and meso-γ-scale vortices in squall lines or bow echoes are important structural features that generate SCWs. The environmental conditions and forecasting methods for SCWs are summarized. The environmental thermal and dynamic factors can affect the generation and intensity of SCWs, but the intensity of convective activity mainly depends on the covariant relationship between convective effective potential energy and vertical wind shear. Numerical model forecasting, physics-based methods (ingredients-based method), and deep learning/machine learning methods are currently the main methods used in short-term forecasting operations for SCWs. Finally, it is indicated that the following issues associated with SCWs in China should be studied, including detailed spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, formation mechanisms of SCWs under different environmental conditions, and forecasting methods.
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