收稿日期: 2004-02-25
修回日期: 2004-07-12
网络出版日期: 2005-03-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目“中国地区经济增长空间分析”（编号：40271033 ）；教育部科学技术研究重点项目“GIS空间数据现代分析”（编号：03074）资助．
AN EXPLORATORY SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS OF SARS EPIDEMIC IN CHINA
Received date: 2004-02-25
Revised date: 2004-07-12
Online published: 2005-03-25
范新生 , 应龙根 . 中国SARS疫情的探索性空间数据分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005 , 20(3) : 282 -291 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2005.03.0282
Based on recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis, this paper analyzes the SARS epidemic in China from a spatial perspective. Our results show strong evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the levels of reported SARS cases. A global measure of spatial autocorrelation with Moran's I reveals the dominant pattern of spatial processes being positive, which suggests that provinces with high (low) reported SARS cases tend to be spatially clustered in nature. A local spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran scatterplot provides a visual impression on the local regimes of spatial dependence as well as the pockets of local non-stationarity with respect to the global spatial process. A further spatial clustering analysis using the local Gi* statistic detects the spatial center of SARS epidemic development and its spatial shifting trajectory. All this strongly suggests that, while regions may be growing or declining in reported SARS cases, they do not do so independently but rather tend to display dynamics similar to their contiguity neighbors.
Key words： SARS; Epidemic; Spatial statistics; ESDA; China.
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