收稿日期: 2003-02-23
修回日期: 2003-07-03
网络出版日期: 2004-02-01
THE ISSUES IN THE IMPACT STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TERRESTRIAL HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
Received date: 2003-02-23
Revised date: 2003-07-03
Online published: 2004-02-01
刘春蓁 . 气候变化对陆地水循环影响研究的问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004 , 19(1) : 115 -119 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.01.0115
The terrestrial branch of water cycle is mainly influenced by the climate and human activities, the interaction between these elements and hydrological process as well. With population growth and socio-economic development, the impact of human activities such as land use change, water use consumption and ecosystem environment change will be increasing. Recently, in some river basins located in North China, the impact of human activities such as groundwater overexploitation, irrigation loss and evaporation from reservoirs is exceeding the impact of climate variability and climate warming on terrestrial hydrological cycle. The changing terrestrial hydrological cycle leads to decreasing runoff in short and decadal time scale. The water and heat exchanges between land and atmosphere created by either nature or anthropogenic sources are important not only to atmosphere, but also bringing impact to the outcomes of soil moisture, evaporation and runoff directly. Having reviewed the above mentioned, the paper discussed the weakness of ongoing method in the study of climate change impact on hydrological cycle. Being one way from outputs of GCM as the climatic scenarios input to the hydrological model, the change in terrestrial hydrological cycle caused by climate warming and human activities can hardly be involved in the feedback to atmosphere. Considering the large contribution of land surface evaporation in precipitation over land, it thus leads to inaccurate rainfall prediction and incorrect describing the change of land surface hydrological cycle as well. Nowadays, both climatologists and hydrologists from geophysical science group have gained successfully in the study on land surface model in GCM and macroscale hydrological models respectively, which are two aspects of compensation each to other in describing the land surface hydrological cycle and will provide the possibility of coupled hydro-climate model in the future study of climate change impact. The human activities make additional difficulties to land surface parameterization. How to improve the description of terrestrial hydrological cycle in the changing environment from climate warming and intensive human activities is still the challenge for coupled hydrology climate models.
［1］ IPCC 1995 Climate Change. Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change［C］. Cambridge University Press，1995.
［2］ IPCC 2001 Climate Change. Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability［C］. Cambridge University Press,2001.
［3］ Nakicenovic N， Swart R，eds. IPCC 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios［R］. Cambridge University Press,2000.
［4］ Arnell N W. Relative effects of multidecadal climate variability and change in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflow in Britain［J］. Journal of Hydrology，2003,270(3~4):195-213.
［5］ Nigel Arnell. Climate change and global water resources［J］. Global Environmental Change,1999,9：531-540.
［6］ Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study. China Climate Change Country Study［M］. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press,1999.
［7］ Chahine T M. The hydrological cycle and its influence on climate［J］.Nature,1992, 239: 373-381.
［8］ Ma Zhuguo(马柱国), Wei Helin(魏和林), Fu Congbin(符淙斌). Progress in the research on the relationship between soil moisture and climate change［J］.Advance in Earth Sciences(地球科学进展),1999，14(3): 299-304.(in Chinese)
［9］ Brubaker K L, Entekhabi D, Eagleson P S. The implementation and validation of improved landsurface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model［J］. Journal of Climate,1993, 6(6):1 077-1 089.
［10］ Nussen B, O'Donnell G M,Lettenmanier D P, et al. Predicting the discharge of global rivers［J］. Journal of Climate,2001,14:3 307-3 323.
［11］ Dickinson R E, HendersonSellers A, kennedy P J. Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme(BATS) Version Ie as coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model［R］. NCAR Technology Note, Tn 387+STR, 1993.
［12］Sellers P J, Mintz Y, Sud Y G, et al. A simple biosphere model(SiB) for use within general circulation models［J］.Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1986,43(6):505-531.
［13］ Bonan G B.A biophysical surface ebergy budget analysis of soil temperature in the boreal forests of interior Alaska［J］.Water Resources Resarch,1991，27(5):767-781.
［14］ Arnell N W. A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geophysical domain［J］. Journal of Hydrology, 1999,217:314-355.
［15］ Liang X, Xie Z. A new surface runoff parameterization with subgridscale soil heterogeneity for land surface models［J］. Advances in Water Resources, 2001,24(9~10):1 173-1 192.
［16］ Mark S Wigmosta, Lance W Vail, Lettenmair D P. A distributed hydrologyvegetation model for complex terrain［J］. Water Resources Research, 1994,30(6):1 665-1 679.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
甘公网安备62010202000687
