作者简介:杨秋明(1963-),男,江苏常州人,研究员,主要从事天气气候预测研究.E-mail:yqm0305@263.net
收稿日期: 2017-05-17
修回日期: 2018-02-28
网络出版日期: 2018-05-24
基金资助
*国家自然科学基金项目“SCGT与夏季东亚ISO相互作用研究及其在长江下游强降水延伸期预报中的应用”(编号:41175082);江苏省气象科研基金面上项目“夏季长江下游地区低频降水和温度实时延伸期预报方法研究”(编号:KM201805)资助.
版权
A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer
First author:Yang Qiuming(1963-), male, Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province, Professor. Research areas include weather and climate prediction.E-mail:yqm0305@263.net
Received date: 2017-05-17
Revised date: 2018-02-28
Online published: 2018-05-24
Supported by
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Study on interaction between SCGT and ISO over East Asia in summer and its application to extended-range prediction of heavy precipitation over the lower reaches of Yangtze River valley” (No.41175082);The Scientific Research Foundation of Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau “Study on the real-time extended-range forecast method of low-frequency rainfall and temperature over the lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley in summer”(No.KM201805).
Copyright
用1979—2011年逐日长江下游气温资料研究长江下游夏季高温日数与温度低频振荡的联系和变化特征。结果表明,长江下游夏季逐日气温主要有1525, 3060 和6070 d 的周期振荡,其中长江下游气温的3060 d 振荡强度年际变化和78月高温日数之间有显著的正相关。采用1979—2000年逐日长江下游气温3060 d低频分量和东亚850 hPa 低频温度主成分,构建了长江下游温度低频分量的延伸期预测的扩展复数自回归模型(ECAR)。对2001—2011年58月长江下游温度低频分量进行独立的实时延伸期逐日预报试验结果表明, 这种数据驱动的预测模型对3060 d时间尺度的长江下游低频温度分量的预测时效可达23 d左右, 对于提前2025 d预报长江下游地区夏季持续高温过程很有帮助,预报能力明显优于自回归模型(AR)。
杨秋明 . 长江下游夏季低频温度和高温天气的延伸期预报研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018 , 33(4) : 385 -395 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.04.0385
Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.
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