地球科学进展

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2016 , Vol. 31 >Issue 8: 775 - 781

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.08.0775.

全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究

  • 史培军 ,
  • 王爱慧 ,
  • 孙福宝 ,
  • 李宁 ,
  • 叶涛 ,
  • 徐伟 ,
  • 王静爱 ,
  • 杨建平 ,
  • 周洪建
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  • 1.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
    2.民政部—教育部减灾与应急管理研究院 北京师范大学, 北京 100875
    3.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029
    4.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
    5.北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875
    6.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院(筹), 甘肃 兰州 730000
    7.民政部国家减灾中心, 北京 100124

作者简介:史培军(1959-),男,陕西靖边人,教授,主要从事环境演变与自然灾害研究.E-mail:spj@bnu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2016-07-16

  修回日期: 2016-08-02

  网络出版日期: 2016-08-20

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目“全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究”(编号:2016YFA0602400)资助

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, 2016,
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A Study of Global Change Population and Economic System Risk Forming Mechanism and Assessment

  • Peijun Shi ,
  • Aihui Wang ,
  • Fubao Sun ,
  • Ning Li ,
  • Tao Ye ,
  • Wei Xu ,
  • Jing’ai Wang ,
  • Jianping Yang ,
  • Hongjian Zhou
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  • 1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    3.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China
    4.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    5.School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    6.Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    7.National Disaster Reduction Center, Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing 100124, China

Received date: 2016-07-16

  Revised date: 2016-08-02

  Online published: 2016-08-20

Supported by

Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China “A study on global change population and economic system risk forming mechanism and assessment” (No.2016YFA0602400)

Copyright

地球科学进展 编辑部, 2016,
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摘要

以增暖为主要特征的全球气候变化,已经对世界可持续发展和人类安全提出严峻挑战。在全球尺度上评价全球变化风险,开展有针对性的防范与适应,已经成为当前国际社会的重要共识。国家重点研发计划项目“全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究”,力图定量预估未来全球气候变化和人口与经济系统的暴露性与脆弱性变化,构建基于复杂系统动力学的全球变化人口与经济系统风险定量评估模型,集成具有自主知识产权的全球变化人口与经济系统风险评估模式,并在全球尺度上定量评估近期和中期全球变化人口与经济系统风险,编制全球变化人口与经济系统风险地图集。为我国参与全球气候治理及国际气候谈判,以及国际减轻灾害风险战略框架的实施提供科学支撑。

关键词： 全球变化; 全球气候变化预估; 人口与经济系统; 风险形成机制; 风险评估模型与模拟

本文引用格式

史培军 , 王爱慧 , 孙福宝 , 李宁 , 叶涛 , 徐伟 , 王静爱 , 杨建平 , 周洪建 . 全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016 , 31(8) : 775 -781 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.08.0775.

Abstract

Global climate change featured with warming has created serious challenge to world sustainable development and human security. It has become an important consensus of the international society to assess global change risk at the global scale and carry out tailored governance and risk-based adaptation. National Key Research and Development Program “Study on global change population and economic system risk forming mechanism and assessment” aims at quantitatively predicting future global climate change and population and economic system exposure and vulnerability change, developing global change population and economic system risk assessment model based on complex system dynamics, synthesizing risk assessment model with proprietary intellectual property rights, assess global change population and economic system risk of the near and mid future at the global scale, and compiling the atlas of global change population and economic system risk. The outcomes intend to serve the participation of global risk governance and international climate negotiation, and to provide scientific support to the implementation of international disaster risk reduction strategy.

Key words： Global change; Global climate change prediction; Population and economic system; Risk forming mechanism; Risk assessment models and modeling.

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