研究论文

利用印度洋前期海温进行东亚地区月均降水的数值预报试验

  • 孙绩华 ,
  • 肖子牛 ,
  • 程建刚
展开
  • 1.南京气象学院,江苏 南京 210044;2.云南省气象科学研究所,云南 昆明 650034
孙绩华(1963-),男,安徽棕阳人,高级工程师,主要从事灾害性天气气候研究.E-mail:sunjh9595@vip.sina.com

收稿日期: 2002-12-31

  修回日期: 2003-06-20

  网络出版日期: 2003-12-01

基金资助

云南省重点基金项目“云南重大气候灾害形成机理研究”(编号:2003D00142)资助.

A NUMERICAL PREDICTION TEST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ON EAST-ASIA WITH THE INDIAN OCEAN SST DATA

Expand
  • 1.Yunnan Meteorological Observatory, Kunming 650034,China;2.Yunnan Meteorological Institute, Kunming 650034,China

Received date: 2002-12-31

  Revised date: 2003-06-20

  Online published: 2003-12-01

摘要

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的两层全球大气环流模式(GCM),在加入1999年和2000年1~6月的低纬度中东太平洋及印度洋的实际海温场后,对同年6~8月的全球大气环流及气候变化进行了数值模拟,重点讨论了东亚地区和我国大部分地区的环流及短期气候变化情况,对比分析了模式预报的月平均降水与实际降水的异同,得出了一些有意义的结论,对利用数值模式进行月平均降水的预报做了一些基本工作。

本文引用格式

孙绩华 , 肖子牛 , 程建刚 . 利用印度洋前期海温进行东亚地区月均降水的数值预报试验[J]. 地球科学进展, 2003 , 18(6) : 939 -946 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2003.06.0939

Abstract

During the ENSO event period,the Indian Ocean SST will be almost anomalous simultaneously.Some research results indicate that the Indian ocean SSTA would mainly influence the climates of Bengal,Indo-China,Indonesia,India and China.The Indian ocean SSTA is important to Asian climate especially to the anomalous precipitation pattern of China.Based on the IAP-GCM2L model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences and the SST data of Indian ocean and median Pacific ocean during January to June,1999 and 2000 in the model, the monthly precipitation prediction of east-Asia region were obtained in this paper. The results indicate that the SSTA of the Indian ocean and the median Pacific ocean would mainly influence the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation of east-Asia region. The monthly precipitation prediction of the numerical simulation is effective in the most regions of east-Asia, especially in southwest China and south China.

参考文献

[1] Wallace J M, Blackmon M L. Observation of low-frequency atmosphere variability, Large-Scale Dynamical Processes in the Atmosphere[M]. Hoskins B J, pearce R, eds. Academic Press,1983.55-94.

[2] Xiao Ziniu,Li Chongyin. Numerical Simulation of the low frequency tele-responses of the atmosphere to outside force.I: Responses to SSTA over the equatorial east Pacific ocean[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmosphric Science, 1992,166:707-717. [肖子牛,李崇银.大气对外强迫低频遥响应的数值模拟.I: 对赤道东太平洋SSTA的响应[J].大气科学,1992,166:707-717.]

[3] Keshavamurty R N. Response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and the teleconnections of the Southern Oscillation[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Science,1982,39:1 241-1 259.

[4] Fu Congbin,Teng Xinglin. The relationship between China climate anomalies in summer and ENSO phenomena[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmosphric Science,1988,12(supp):133-141. [符淙斌,腾星林.我国夏季的气候异常与埃尔尼诺/南方涛动现象的关系[J].大气科学, 1988,12(特刊):133-141.]

[5] Li Chongyin. El Niño event and the temperature anomalies in eastern China[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1989,3:210-219.[李崇银.El Niño事件与中国东部气温异常[J]. 热带气象,1989,3:210-219.]

[6] Chen Lieting. The tropical Indian ocean-Pacific ocean latitudinal SSTA and its influence on monsoon in summer[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmosphric Science,1988,12(supp.):142-148. [陈烈庭.热带印度洋太平洋海温纬向异常及其对夏季风的影响[J].大气科学, 1988,12(特刊):142-148.]

[7] Xiao Ziniu,Sun Jihua,Li Chongyin. Influence of the Indian Ocean SSTA on Asian climate during an ENSO period[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmosphric Science,2000,24(4):461-469. [肖子牛,孙绩华,李崇银.El Niño 期间印度洋海温异常对亚洲气候的影响[J].大气科学,2000,244:461-469.]

Options
文章导航

/