中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示*
葛全胜（1963-），男，安徽安庆人，研究员，主要从事全球变化及历史地理研究. E-mail: geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn
收稿日期: 2013-12-02
修回日期: 2014-01-02
网络出版日期: 2014-01-10
基金资助
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划课题“暖期气候对中国社会经济的影响与人类适应研究”（编号：2010CB950103）;国家自然科学基金项目“中国历史气候与社会系统周期变化的协同效应分析”(编号：41371201)资助.
Learn from the Historical Impacts of Climatic Change in China
Received date: 2013-12-02
Revised date: 2014-01-02
Online published: 2014-01-10
气候变化的社会影响是当前全球变暖影响研究的一个重要领域。以古鉴今, 历史上应对气候变化的经验和教训可以为现代人类应对以全球变暖为突出标志的气候变化挑战提供宝贵的借鉴。总结中国历史气候变化对社会影响研究领域的成果, 归纳得到了历史时期气候变化对中国社会发展影响的若干认识及其对适应未来气候变化的启示。主要结论是：历史气候变化影响的总体特征是“冷抑暖扬”, 但影响与响应存在区域差异；社会经济的衰落与百年尺度的气候由暖转冷呈现同期性, 与暖期相伴的社会快速发展会增加社会对资源、环境需求的压力, 导致社会脆弱性加大；历史上应对气候变化策略因时、因地、因主体而异；而以政府为主导的主动因地制宜适应是应对气候变化的有效策略。
葛全胜 , 方修琦 , 郑景云 . 中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示*[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014 , 29(1) : 23 -29 . DOI: 1001-8166(2014)01-0023-07
The social impact of global climate change is one of the hotspots in the current research. To deal with the challenges from climate change, it could be learned from the adapting experiences and lessons to climate change in the history. The main achievements of cognition on the historical impacts of climatic change in China and on coping with the climate changes in the future based the published papers in recent years is summarized. The followings are the main conclusions. ①The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change in the history was negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods, but there were regional differences in the impact and responses. ②The cooling trend on centurial scale and the socialeconomic decline run concurrently. The rapid development supported by better resources and environment in the warm period could lead to the increase of the social vulnerability when the climate turned to the cold period. ③Strategies and policies to cope with the climate change in the history were adopted according to the temporal and spatial circumstances and the subjects. Initiative adaptation promoted by governments was an effective way.
Key words： Historical period; The impacts of climatic change; China
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