地球科学进展

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2014 , Vol. 29 >Issue 8: 934 - 946

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.08.0934

全球陆地表面气温变化研究现状、问题和展望

  • 任国玉 ,
  • 任玉玉 ,
  • 李庆祥 ,
  • 徐文慧
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  • 1. 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 国家气候中心, 北京100081
    2. 中国气象局国家气象信息中心, 北京100081

作者简介：任国玉（1958-）, 男, 辽宁沈阳人, 研究员, 主要从事气候变化研究. E-mail: guoyoo@cma.gov.cn

收稿日期: 2014-06-16

  修回日期: 2014-07-21

  网络出版日期: 2014-09-17

基金资助

国家公益性行业（气象）专项“近百年全球陆地气候变化监测技术与应用”（编号：GYHY-201206012）资助;感谢课题组成员徐文慧、周雅清、张雷、张爱英、郭军、初子莹、李娇、张媛的技术支持

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, 2014,
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An Overview on Global Land Surface Air Temperature Change

  • Ren Guoyu ,
  • Ren Yuyu ,
  • Li Qingxiang ,
  • Wenhui Xu
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  • 1. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
    2. National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Received date: 2014-06-16

  Revised date: 2014-07-21

  Online published: 2014-09-17

Copyright

地球科学进展 编辑部, 2014, This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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摘要

气候变化模拟、预估、影响评价和适应行动, 均需深入了解全球陆地及不同区域地面平均气温、极端气温变化的基本观测事实和精准时空规律。长期以来, 近百年全球陆地表面气温序列的构建和分析主要由英国和美国少数几家研究机构垄断。这些机构研制的长序列全球陆地表面气温变化分析产品成为气候变化科学的基石。然而, 现有全球陆地表面气温资料数据及分析结果还存在明显不足, 其中突出的问题包括：①中国及周边国家、地区观测覆盖不充分, 早期资料覆盖严重匮乏;②对城市化影响偏差重视不够, 没有对其进行系统研究和订正。另一方面, 我国气象部门目前已初步建立了全球陆地表面气温观测资料数据集, 中国科学家也在城市化对地面气温趋势影响偏差评价和订正方面开展了系统研究。但迄今为止, 我国还没有研制出高质量、覆盖全球各个大陆的地表气温资料数据集及其分析产品。如何完善业已建成的地表气温观测资料数据集, 系统分析、评价全球陆地城镇观测站地面气温序列中的城市化影响性质和程度, 发展客观的方法订正城市化影响偏差, 建立中国自己的高质量全球陆地长序列地面气温资料数据集, 构建和分析全球陆表平均和极端气温时间序列, 监测和揭示全球陆地及不同区域地面气温变化的精细规律, 已成为我国气候变化和全球变化科学的重要任务。

关键词： 全球气候变化; 地表气温; 基础数据; 城市化影响

本文引用格式

任国玉 , 任玉玉 , 李庆祥 , 徐文慧 . 全球陆地表面气温变化研究现状、问题和展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014 , 29(8) : 934 -946 . DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.08.0934

Abstract

Understanding of tempospatial pattern and the systimatic bias of the obeserved decadal to multidecadal variability and longterm trends of global land Surface Air Temperature (SAT) is needed for climate change studies and policymaking. This paper summarizes the state and problems of the current studies of global land SAT change, and points out the necessarty and possibility to launch a new study of global and regional SAT dataset and analyzing products. It is obvious from the overview that there exist some problems with the current three global datasets under use in global climate change research, and a major issue would be the inefficient treatments of the urbanization bias in the land SAT series. It is proposed that the Chinese global land SAT dataset developed in the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) be improved and completed, and the urbanization effect on SAT trends of global land stations be evaluated and adjusted. Based on the urbanbias adjusted SAT datasets, global and regional SAT series could be constructed and analyzed to reveal the spatial and temporal patterns of SAT variablity and change. Chinese scientists could play a more important role in the endouvour facing climate community.

Key words： Climate change; Temperature; Dataset; Urbanization effect.

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