利用1880—2009年HadISST资料,去掉百年全球变暖的信号,研究发现东太平洋、北太平洋和北大西洋都有较强的年际和年代际振荡信号,特别是赤道东太平洋南侧的年代际振荡是不容忽视的。对全球范围的海表温度资料做EOF分析发现,存在3种主要的全球尺度信号,第一模态为太平洋型、第二模态为北大西洋型以及第三模态为赤道中太平洋型。特别指出,第三模态是CP ENSO在全球模态中的表现。这3种模态在年际和年代际尺度都有显著的信号,在无滤波的情况下,3种模态方差贡献之和为34%。在年代际以上时间尺度范围,3种模态方差贡献之和为61%。在各种时间尺度中,这3种信号与全球平均温度都有一定的联系,尤其第一、二模态的影响最为重要,在年代际尺度中,第一、二模态方差贡献之和达到50%。2005年以后全球并没有明显增温,可能与前2个模态同时下降有关。

Using the HadISST data from 1880 to 2009, removed the signal of global warming in one hundred year. The results show that, there were the significant interannual and interdecadal oscillation signal at the eastern Pacific and north Pacific and north Atlantic, especially the decadal oscillation in the south of eastern equatorial Pacific cannot be ignored. We found there are three major global-scale signals by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on global sea surface temperature, the first mode is (ENSO-like/PDO-like) Pacific pattern, the second mode is (AMO-like) the north Atlantic pattern and the third mode is (ENSO Modoki-like/CP ENSO-like) Center Pacific Ocean pattern. In particular, the third mode is the performance of Center Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the global mode. There are significant signals in interannual and interdecadal scales, in the unfiltered conditions, the three modes can explain 34% of total variance contribution. Above the interdecadal scale, the sum of three modes variance contribution is 61%. In various time scales, the three signals and the average global temperature has a connection, especially the influence of the first and second mode is the most important, in the decadal scale, the sum of the first and second modal variance contribution is 50%. Since 2005, there is no significant signal of global warming may be associated with the simultaneous decline of the first two modes.