指出当代气候变暖的自然因素（主要是天文因素）和温室效应两者都相当重要，至今尚难区分何者为主；气候增暖的后果并不都是坏事，而是利弊都不可低估；历史上自然灾害群发期主要不在暖期而是冷期；未来对策不宜将注意力仅放在一种可能性上。 

This paper points out that the natural factors(mainly is astronomical factors) and the greenhouse effect of climate warming are both important,and it is difficult to define which one is more important up to now.The results of climate warming are not bad things, but its advantage and disadvantage both can not be underestimated.The troop occurring periods in history mainly occurred in the warm period but not in the cold period.The future countermeasures can not pay attention to only one probability.